tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18658037542004636712024-03-13T20:08:57.719-07:00EYASU SOLOMONEYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.comBlogger170125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-73715696827674609412013-09-18T05:31:00.000-07:002013-09-18T05:31:01.660-07:00Africapitalism: Purposeful thinking for African business
By: Nicole Velleman
Africa offers a ray of hope in an uncertain global economy. Many parts of the continent are experiencing rapid and sustained economic growth, with political, social and infrastructural conditions continually improving. Market attractiveness has begun to outweigh the risks of doing business, and foreign investment is flooding in. Most exciting is the emerging growth in intra-African investment: Africans doing business for Africa.
Now is the time of the African Challengers. These local businesses with global ambitions are expanding rapidly and fending off larger global competitors. This movement can be observed in the workings of big business, SMEs and entrepreneurs alike. Increasingly, local B-brands are investing in marketing to grow brand equity, using local know-how and quick decision-making to compete against (and beat) multinationals.
Our latest white paper, 'Doing Business on Purpose', demonstrates how businesses can make a positive societal impact in a way that is also commercially advantageous. We show that by uncovering the why behind your business and brand, you can give your employees a reason to wake up in the morning, engage meaningfully with consumers, be a part of something that is bigger than yourself, and enjoy sustainable growth.
Purpose is relevant
Purpose is especially relevant on the African continent, where businesses cannot separate themselves from the social contexts in which they operate. The successful African brands of the future will be those that view societal challenges as opportunities rather than barriers, and that become financially and emotionally invested in Africa. This is not philanthropy - this is for-profit business done with long-term, holistic goals in mind.
Can purpose be used as a competitive advantage by local businesses as they take on global players?
Key private sector figures are advocating new models of 'philanthropic investment', 'venture philanthropy' and 'philanthro-capitalism'. Africapitalism, the term coined by Nigerian mogul Tony Elumelu, is a for-profit model aimed at stimulating economic development. Elumelu believes that the African private sector has "the power to transform the continent through long-term investments, creating both economic prosperity and social wealth", and by doing so, we can teach non-Africans how to approach investing in the continent. And he's not alone in his thinking: the likes of Aliko Dangote, Lucien Ebata, Theophilus Danjuma - other key figures with enormous economic power - have realised the value they can create by investing in development.
Unique advantage
African businesses have the unique advantage of fully understanding the risks, opportunities and, crucially, the social contexts of the markets in which they operate. International competitors, even with large research and marketing budgets, lack the social sensitivities, on-the-ground access and long-term experience needed to build relevant brands in the way local businesses do. While multinationals are making decisions overseas, African businesses can adapt quickly to meet the needs of more demanding consumers with growing spending power.
Additionally, African governments have earned a reputation of hostility towards exploitative foreigners. It makes political sense to create attractive business environments for locals through innovation and investments in human capital. We are seeing spending on education increase and social innovation hubs and accelerators popping up all over the continent.
Embracing new business paradigm
Africa is embracing a new business paradigm. Why try to convince the sceptics that doing business in Africa is a good idea, when you can enable those who are already investing in the continent to create better-functioning business environments?
In a recent television interview, Aliko Dangote said that the reason for his success was that he believed in Nigeria, and invested when others were too scared to do so. Whether you look at it from a financial point of view (creating the best environment for business to prosper) or an emotional point of view (working towards fulfilling Africa's potential), all roads lead to the same point: Africa's future requires the business world to think purposefully to solve key problems, drive development and improve the quality of life.
The mission to build better societies cannot be left to government alone. Responsible business practice is critical in building better-functioning environments, which in turn improves the attractiveness of these markets.
Public-private partnerships are a key tool in getting this right, and there are encouraging examples of these engagements taking place. The Power Africa initiative, for example, is a multi-stakeholder partnership between the United States, the governments of Ghana, Tanzania, Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria and Ethiopia, and the African private sector. It aims to double access to power in Africa over the next five years. Elumelu's company, Heirs Holdings, is the single largest private sector investor, having pumped $2.5 billion in the project.
These governments understand that energy sector reforms will drive growth and investment and only by partnering with the private sector can they make their ambitions a reality.
Creating societal value
So, how can African businesses go about creating societal value while still serving their own interests?
Collaborate with government, other businesses and civil society to create better business environments
Encourage private sector investments in infrastructure
Produce safe, affordable and responsible products and services
Develop human capital by investing in training and skills development
Recruit locally
Empower local business through strong supplier and distribution networks
Innovate, invest in technology development, and share knowledge
These emerging patterns of thinking are incredibly exciting. Business leaders who think about success in terms of purpose will prove to have a competitive advantage: one that allows African businesses to realise both financial and social wealth.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-23171899754803582152013-06-29T05:58:00.001-07:002013-06-29T05:58:40.242-07:00Digital Age-Does Foreign Policy Begin At Home?-Richard Haass<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/WDnoBhoQ_1k" width="480"></iframe>EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-25883713202136251082012-09-26T04:45:00.003-07:002012-09-26T04:45:58.054-07:00Trim the “fat” but that’s not our principal foreign policy strategic challenge by Mukoni Ratshitanga
It is commonly held that foreign policy is an extension of a country’s domestic policy. Small wonder then that it is hotly contested as domestic policy.
States endeavour to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity, promote their economic well-being and national image, among others.
Foreign policy is therefore nothing but the name we give for a country’s domestic political, economic and, in the widest sense, ideological image of itself. It is this broad context within which foreign policy specifics are fashioned that Mzukisi Qobo misses in his article: “SA should trim excess fat from many embassies,” (Business Day, September 21 – http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2012/09/21/sa-should-trim-excess-fat-from-many-embassies ).
He argues that South Africa should close down diplomatic missions from whence there is no “demonstrable increase in investments, growth in export markets and an upturn in employment.”
Economic diplomacy is and should be one of our strategic tasks. This has in fact exercised strategic levels of government in the last couple of years. It was noted that since 1994, South Africa has done well in political diplomacy but not as well in economic diplomacy. One of the least known facts is that thanks to our success, we are host to the second largest number of diplomatic missions in the world after Washington.
Acknowledgment of our success and failures, relative and absolute, did not imply, as it could not, perceiving foreign policy in cost accounting optics. Rightly or wrongly, it took it for granted that government is morally, politically and legally obliged to be prudent in its uses of public resources, including the all-round productivity of foreign missions assessed as part of on-going review of everything it does.
Admittedly, it is not prudent to assert that there will not be much “demonstrable increase in investments, growth in export markets and an upturn in employment as an outcome of our diplomatic relations” with many of our SADC neighbours and much of the continent for a long time to come.A cursory glance at the underlying logic of the Southern African Customs Union’s (SACU) equal share of customs revenue among SADC member states suggests that though unstated, South Africa is in fact a provider of development aid to the region. Were each one of our countries in the region to receive their due, South Africa would doubtlessly benefit the most.
But the model is not without good reasons. Our development efforts would be unsustainable if the rest of the region (and continent) remains underdeveloped. This is why South Africa’s contribution to the development of the region and continent has continued to be and must remain part of our foreign policy objectives. Besides self-interest, there is, after all, a principle of “solidarity” in the system of international relations, according to which you lend a helping hand to your neighbours and others further afield.
Consistent with another and antithetical paradigm, Qobo is doing something more than advice government to “trim the fat” and close down missions from whence there is no “demonstrable increase in investments….” This is the corporatization and “rightsizing” paradigm of the state, a cost accounting purview which perceives government and governance exclusively in terms of financial loss and benefit.
This view does not appreciate the social and political side of foreign policy which does not easily lend itself to the precision of an accountant. At times to its own and largely to society’s detriment, it defines the “national interest” in extremely narrow terms and often ends up being all things to everyone.
Soon, the protagonists of this school of thought will demand the closure of South Africa’s mission to the United Nations in New York because it has no “demonstrable increase in investments, growth in export markets and an upturn in employment as an outcome of our diplomatic relations,” or so it assumes.
The strategic foreign policy challenge is not, as Qobo and others would like to have us believe, the R10bn or so we spend annually on our missions or that 60% of missions are headed by politicians or people who are not career diplomats, a non issue if historical and contemporary domestic and global lessons mean anything.
Relative to the totality of what it earns the country, the money spent on our diplomatic missions must also be assessed in terms of government spending as a whole. We have, for example, rightly or wrongly increased the political wage bill by more than R1bn a year after the 2009 general elections with the increase in cabinet ministers, deputy ministers and departments.
The larger issue with respect to our foreign policy is its strategic political orientation!
Mukoni Ratshitanga, September 25, 2012.
EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com79tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-46362232726375096902012-02-20T03:00:00.003-08:002012-02-20T03:03:55.553-08:00The Legacies of Sebhat Gebre-egziabher<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gppJif743Dg/T0IoJFVnldI/AAAAAAAAAc8/5UoHbAiuw_A/s1600/1.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gppJif743Dg/T0IoJFVnldI/AAAAAAAAAc8/5UoHbAiuw_A/s320/1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5711171413975995858" /></a><br />Sebhat Gebere-egziabher is one of the literary figures in the history of Ethiopian literature who introduced a hitherto not-so-openly dealt with theme. He is also one of the literary writers who pursued their studies at some level in the West and got back to Ethiopia. The pieces he had written were only published as books before few years for he was just keeping a diary and never thought that they would assume the form of a book. Undeniably his works have grabbed the attention of his readership and fans. <br /><br />Among other things, Sebhat is widely criticized for not writing as many books as he read. He is said to occupy the foremost position when compared to other literary writers who were known to have read a lot of books on an assortment of subjects. Simply, he was one hell of a bookworm. It makes one wonder, though, if Sebhat felt the responsibility to write in order to hand down the knowledge he garnered from books to the younger generations. Even the publication of the books that bear his name today was made possible by the pressure from others. All of his works mainly highlight sexual hedonism. This appears to be a deviation from the Ethiopian literature per se. However it doesn’t mean that sexual scenes and accounts are not found in other works authored by Ethiopian writers other than him-only not in such a straightforward fashion as in Sebhat’s narratives. <br /><br />Apart from his works, his world outlook and modus vivendi has seized the attention of his fans and followers in particular and the Ethiopian public in general. Today sebhat has more fans, followers, and critics than any other literary writer in the country. Have you ever wondered how he came to be an individual of such a persona at the moment and has become the persona grata that he is at the present? <br /><br />In his biography written by Zenebe Wela, Sebhat said, “I got hold of liquor, and counted it without savoring it.” Apparently Sebhat’s life had detoured when he broke up with his first wife, Hanna. Prior to this mishap, he had been a total teetotal, non-smoker, non-Khat chewer dandy. A chap you would, by Ethiopian standards of the day, refer to as a ‘demure journalist’. The termination of his wedlock with Hanna put him on an absolute u-turn. He was perplexed, so to speak, lost grip on life, and embarked on a way of life contrary to the one he had previously pursued. He didn’t see this coming at all and thus couldn’t figure the state of affairs that befell him. Eventually Sebhat became less of a journalist and more of a philosopher. For he was no more required to tally with standards set by Hanna, he adopted the principle of being ‘oneself’ in life. <br /><br />The majority of his followers and fans don’t seem to be aware of this turning point in his life. Had he not lost his beloved Hanna, he would not have had the personality he has today. In any event, Sebhat didn’t join this path out of his own volition but he was compelled by circumstances he happened to stumble upon in his journey of life. <br /><br />Do the yoof have to follow his example then? Should we take him as a model? It is pretty questionable. He has made clear on several occasions that he hasn’t ever done anything with the intension of setting an example of any sort whatsoever for the young generations. <br /><br />Maybe compared to his own friend and colleague, Bealu Girma, who departed this life at a rather early age, Sebhat has not produced as much in more than half a century in the sphere of literature. He knows his literary pieces are not that historically, politically or even epistemologically enlightening and has kept on warning the younger generations not to follow his example. All the same, there is no denying that fact that he has had a great influence on his admirers. “I have never asked anyone to follow me but if anyone wants to, it is absolutely their right,” says Sebhat. “If anyone out there thinks the youth have done wrong and are going astray by following my example, why don’t they do better things and win the youth over to their side?” It makes sense, doesn’t it? Yet anyone as popular as him cannot avoid being looked up to in one way or another. <br /><br />The reality, however, is that Sebhat’s works are full of sex scenes and accounts and whenever his name is mentioned anywhere, I am sure, sex pops up in minds of whoever happen to around. People have soft spot for sex and sex sells. Apart from that most people argue that his works don’t have much to offer than being mere erotica.<br />By Gubae GundartaEYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-45837791950138097882011-12-15T00:32:00.000-08:002011-12-15T00:35:25.367-08:00Building an African InfrastructurePaul Collier<br />Key political decisions are needed to build critical rail networks for<br />a continent well suited to them<br />THE coming decade could be Africa’s opportunity for investment. Globally, there is a massive pool of investable private resources. Prospects in the advanced economies look bleak, and in the major emerging economies—the so-called BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, and China—the future is looking more uncertain. Although Africa is not immune to global risks, its continued growth is likely to rest on the potential for further resource discoveries and for commercial cultivation of its vast, underused agricultural land.<br />New transportation infrastructure is vital to harness these two potential sources of growth. At the top of the list is the classic form of economic infrastructure: railways.<br />The continent is a huge landmass, well suited to railroads. Yet during the past half-century Africa’s rail network, never very extensive, has shrunk. Even the United States, a huge landmass with relatively low population density, has one kilometer of track for every 43 square kilometers of land. By contrast, Nigeria, home to one-fifth of the population of sub-Saharan Africa and one of its most densely populated countries, has but one kilometer of rail for every 262 square kilometers. Nigeria is not atypical: by radically reducing transportation costs, railways could open up vast tracts of Africa to economic opportunities, especially in agriculture and mining, which many countries are relying on for future growth. The continent needs a decade of massive investment in rail networks.<br />Politics at play<br />Railways are hardly technologically challenging. They represent the oldest continuous industrial technology. Africa’s lack of railways compared with other regions is primarily a consequence of politics. Although railways are technologically simple, they are politically complicated—for three fundamental reasons:<br />• Railways are a primary example of a network industry. The key feature of a network industry is that its operations are so interconnected that it is more efficient to run it as a single entity. This presents an unavoidable role for public policy: how to manage a monopoly provider in the public interest.<br />• They are a classic example of high fixed costs relative to operating costs. In the parlance of economics, the marginal cost—the cost of producing one more unit—is well below the average cost. For social efficiency, prices should be set around the marginal cost, but for an activity to be commercially viable prices must at least equal the average cost. This tension in pricing calls for a political solution: typically either a subsidy from the government or cross-subsidization from users who are not very price sensitive to those who depend on cheap rail service.<br />• The mainland continent of Africa is split into so many countries that inevitably rail lines need to be international, especially because many of the countries that would benefit most are landlocked. Yet a transnational network investment is potentially at risk from each national polity. Indeed, each time rolling stock crosses borders a valuable asset moves into a new jurisdiction.<br />Because African governments have yet to tackle these three political challenges, the African rail network remains inadequate.<br /><br />Organizing a network industry<br />Railways are not the only network industry. Telephone service and electricity are other important examples. In Africa phone networks are usually provided by the private sector but subject to regulation; electricity is usually in the public sector and run as a public monopoly. A rail network could be run under either of these models. However, in Africa public ownership and management of the rail network is unlikely to be the best approach. Governments have so many other pressing needs that they cannot afford to finance the huge cost of a rail network—new or rehabilitated. Furthermore, African governments’ resources are already stretched so thin from management of their core functions that peripheral tasks are best organized by the private sector.<br /><br />The Tanzania Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), the rail link between Zambia and Tanzania built by China in the 1970s, offers a salutary lesson. TAZARA today barely functions. Building a line is not enough; it must be well managed and linked to potential commercial users. Currently, many African governments could get financing for more such Chinese-built lines in exchange for mineral concessions, but granting mineral concessions means mortgaging Africa’s limited wealth and should not be done lightly.<br />Africa’s particular needs suggest that a rail network should be a regulated private monopoly, with both financing and managerial expertise from a private company. But regulation poses difficulties that may be insuperable. It is not possible to anticipate all eventualities: presenting a public rail regulator with a set of agreed rules to be implemented is not enough. To cope with unforeseen circumstances, the regulator must have some discretionary room. But in African governance environments such discretion would likely kill private investment. With the region’s reputation for corruption, even an honest regulator’s decisions would be subject to allegations and expectations of bribery. Once a regulator is given the power to set prices that could bankrupt either the railway company or its customers, neither group would be willing to risk investment.<br />Fortunately, there is a viable alternative to a domestic regulator with discretionary power—namely, an international dispute settlement board whose members are approved by governments, investors, and customers. This is a standard means of international contract enforcement, and indeed one commonly used both by foreign investors in China and by Chinese investors in Africa. The record of these boards is good. Despite frequent findings against governments, there is a high rate of compliance with decisions. Before investment, a government, an international rail investor, and commercial rail users can negotiate a mutually satisfactory agreement and lock it in by including a contract clause that refers disputes to such a procedure.<br />Differential pricing<br />As noted above, because the fixed costs of rail investment are so large, marginal costs are substantially below average. This would generally argue for public ownership, with government using tax revenues to subsidize the fixed costs of the network to keep the price to users around the marginal cost. The importance of such low pricing is not just hypothetical. Although rail networks can open up huge tracts of little-used land to commercially viable agriculture, the amount of usable land is likely to be highly sensitive to transportation costs.<br /><br />While marginal cost pricing would be very helpful for opening up African agriculture, African governments are in no position to finance such a subsidy. Indeed, even if a government were to provide a subsidy, it might actually deter investors because of the government’s limited long-term credibility. Neither potential rail operators nor potential commercial farms would trust a government commitment to a long-term subsidy.<br />As with regulation, there are feasible alternatives: price discrimination among users is one. Price-sensitive users can pay only marginal costs, if higher-profit industries less sensitive to transportation costs pay more. In Africa, rail networks have two principal potential users, mining and commercial agriculture.<br />Many natural resource discoveries will be far from coasts and will require lengthy rail links to move ore to ports. Without these rail links vast tracts of underused land would have no commercial value. The core economic challenge is to organize the rail network in a way that meets the needs both of the extraction industries and of agriculture.<br />Mining operations require railways and ports. Were there no agricultural users, the mining companies themselves could finance the rail network from some of the high profits generated by extraction. As long as these rail links serve agriculture and resource-extraction users, agriculture need pay only the marginal cost of operation. In effect, the differential profitability of mines and agriculture creates the potential for price discrimination between them.<br />Mining companies, eager to open up resource-laden lands, have offered to set up such railways, even though these companies are not likely to welcome or desire multifunctional use of the rail network. Mines are accustomed to dedicated services. With the price for agricultural users set close to the marginal cost, the hassle for the mining company of serving other users would far outweigh the benefit from the revenue. For governments, however, a multiuser rail network is very desirable. Especially in light of the uprisings in north Africa, the imperative across the continent is to generate jobs.<br />Modern mining, which is becoming increasingly capital intensive, generates few jobs and is often damaging to the environment. As a result, the local population may see few direct benefits from mining operations alone. But commercial agriculture can generate both mass wage employment and opportunities for small farmers—a large constituency that will benefit from a rail network made viable by resource extraction.<br />Who will run the railway?<br />Such a multiuser rail infrastructure, while attractive, is organizationally demanding. Who will run it? As noted above, it would be beyond the core competence and natural interest of a mining company to run a railway that prices its service for farms at their marginal cost. As a result, even if a mining company were to provide such rail service, farms would likely mistrust it because of its peripheral nature for the mining company. Further, resource endowments are unlikely to be discovered all at once. A single rail company would, in effect, have acquired the exclusive right to any undiscovered minerals. Other resource-extraction companies would not be likely to explore if they had to depend on the single rail company to ship their ore. In that situation, the government would have radically less future bargaining power over mining concessions.<br /><br />Yet, as already discussed, government control is probably not a good solution either. A third-party commercial operator with core competence in infrastructure but without mining interests appears to be the most credible option. All rail contracts would include an agreement with the government and commercial users—enforced by reference to a dispute settlement board—that builds in price discrimination. The agreement would ensure that the difference between average and marginal costs is covered by the high profits of natural resource extraction, with agriculture charged only the marginal cost.<br />Such contracts could provide the underlying security needed for a rail company to raise sufficient money to build a rail network, ensuring recovery of the initial investment from income generated by resource companies. Conversely, it would reassure resource-extraction companies of consistent railway service free from political motivation, and commercial farms would be assured low-cost transportation to market.<br />An international rail line<br />In many cases the track of African railways must cross national borders. For example, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo all need rail links to the coast of east Africa—through Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique. Similarly, the most efficient route to the coast from eastern Guinea, which has many valuable minerals, is through Liberia. Yet for the past half-century the governments of these countries have not sustained the necessary political cooperation to make such transnational lines work.<br /><br />If a rail line is transnational, pricing issues become more complex. For example, the natural resource may be in one country (at the rail head), while most of the agricultural land to be opened up may be in another country. Moreover, because much of the output—ore or agricultural—is for export, the monopoly position of the port gives the government of the coastal country the ability to negate a pricing agreement confined to rail charges by inflating port charges. Another complication occurs because the rolling stock keeps crossing borders. Unless there is a coordinated approach to legal recourse, the engines and cars cannot be used as collateral for loans, which will make the financing cost unnecessarily high. Finally, because the goods transported by the railway cross borders, they are vulnerable to delays because of slow or predatory customs procedures. Hence governments must make credible commitments to maintaining the free flow of goods in transit.<br />For a transnational rail line to be commercially viable, the risks for investors and customers must be addressed at the start of negotiations. In effect, the governments involved must agree in advance to a limited but clearly specified degree of pooled sovereignty. An intergovernmental rail authority must be established that has sufficient power to negotiate credibly with a rail company and its commercial users. Clearly, the decision to set up such authorities is beyond the realm of ministers of transportation and rests with presidents and parliaments.<br />The way forward<br />After half a century of neglect, it is tempting to resolve the need for rail investment by succumbing to the offers of mining companies. While that would undoubtedly get railways built, it would come with two hidden costs. Once a particular mining company owns a rail network, other mining companies will be reluctant to be depend on it, which would give the network builder enormous bargaining power with respect to future resource discoveries. Governments tend to look at the short term, but mining companies have learned to consider the long term. Further, mining companies have little interest in multiuser railways. They are liable to regard low-value agricultural users as a nuisance. In contrast, governments have an overwhelming interest in ensuring that rail networks serve many users. During negotiations, mining companies will doubtless tout their willingness to provide comprehensive rail service to all, but afterward governments may be in a bind if a mining company finds so-called facts on the ground that it says prevent construction of a multifunctional railroad.<br /><br />In the scramble to negotiate mining deals, African governments risk missing a historic opportunity to transform the transportation arteries of the continent. The past impasse over rail provision did not stem from a lack of financing, but from inadequate political design. Because railways are network industries, they cannot be kept in check by competition nor—because of deficiencies in African governance—by regulation. The solution is to write contracts subject to dispute settlement boards. Because railways have high fixed costs, social efficiency will require subsidies for price-sensitive users. Subsidies cannot come from cash-strapped governments, but can be achieved through price discrimination. In Africa, rail arteries must be transnational, which can lead to intercountry disputes and holdups that would deter private investment. Yet these risks can be addressed by subregional rail authorities with decision-making power.<br />Africa’s current generation of political leaders has the opportunity to open the physical geography of the region. The decisions they must make are complicated, and much is at stake for the economic well-being of the continent. But forewarned is forearmed.■<br />Paul Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-53149716915524056132011-09-07T06:38:00.001-07:002011-09-07T06:40:21.191-07:009/11 Ten Years On: A Risk Diffused<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QOHVAL5-IMg/Tmd0O4U5enI/AAAAAAAAAcE/VV0jepthpnc/s1600/18293_alexis_crow.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 120px; height: 160px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QOHVAL5-IMg/Tmd0O4U5enI/AAAAAAAAAcE/VV0jepthpnc/s320/18293_alexis_crow.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5649612056546605682" /></a><br />by Dr Alexis Crow<br />In the run-up to the anniversary of the attacks of September 11 2001, the Obama administration is circulating two different messages: one for domestic consumption, and one for its overseas allies. <br /><br />The first message is aimed at rallying political support, and is likely to tout the killing of Osama bin Laden as an operational victory in the midst of a larger strategic campaign. The second message emphasises that the anniversary of 9/11 is – according to one official – 'not just about us.' The Obama administration seeks to transmit what it calls a 'positive, forward-looking narrative' to its allies. Yet how positive can the US and its allies be in the continued struggle against Islamic fundamentalism? <br /><br />On the one hand, we have moved away from the presumption (led by the US) that the 'war on terror' was the defining strategic imperative – or the ordering principle for international security – of the era. This is a welcome fact for the very reason that the war on terror was unwinnable. It was exhaustingly costly to those who chose to wage it – from the lives lost, to the material and economic costs, as well as from a political standpoint. <br /><br />The challenge of global Islamic terrorism now has diffused into a set of diverse risks: it has joined the ranks of older Cold War threats such as nuclear proliferation and state failure – and also the ranks of newer 'post-modern' risks such as cyber-war, climate change, and energy security. <br /><br />Policy-makers need to respond with a pragmatic, realistic assessment of fighting terrorism in such a complex strategic landscape. It will require creative thinking in terms of resources, infrastructure, and partners – specifically, dynamic relationships with new partners with whom America and its allies have not previously engaged. <br /><br />Crucially, this means that the US should not view risks such as terrorism through a Cold War system of deterrence, which is currently being hyped as Washington’s innovative strategy on terrorism. This 'new' policy of containment and deterrence is not entirely engaging and creative, and fails to take stock of the complex strategic landscape in which Euro-Atlantic societies operate. Yes, drone attacks are effective and promise immediate effect without lasting commitment, but disrupting transnational and global terror networks, engaging with partners on terrorist finances, halting piracy off the coast of Somalia – all of these risks require new thinking. The US could lead the way by adopting a flexible combination of tools, allies, intelligence, and push to engage with countries such as Russia and China. <br /><br />Such a policy shift is politically expensive in the West: it necessitates an admission that the single risk of terrorism has been supplanted with many others, and furthermore that risks cannot be managed alone and may require cooperating with non-traditional allies or even the 'bad guys'. Only in such a way can the US and the wider West be 'forward-looking' beyond 9/11.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-59753881656673309292011-08-31T04:52:00.000-07:002011-08-31T04:53:11.368-07:00Libya: AU’s lost opportunity
<br />By Elizabeth Sidiropoulos
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<br />VICTORIOUS: A rebel fighter stands on the back of a truck with a rocket launcher in Muammar Gaddafi s Bab al-Aziziyah compound in Tripoli last Wednesday. The ransacking of the compound marked the effective collapse of Gaddafi s 42-year-old regime. The AU has played a marginal role in resolving the Libyan crisis, says the writer. Picture: AP
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<br />In life realities on the ground often lay waste to the best-laid plans. So has it been for the AU in the Libyan crisis. Since the rebels entered Tripoli on August 21 the hand-wringing around the AU’s marginalisation by Nato during the campaign has reached a crescendo.
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<br />In that period, the Transitional National Council (TNC) has been recognised as the legitimate government in Libya by many states, including 20 from Africa; there has been a diplomatic flurry of activity on both sides of the Mediterranean with pledges for reconstruction assistance… and oil contracts; and the Libya Contact Group met in Istanbul – all this before the AU’s Peace and Security Council meeting on August 25 and 26. Has the AU lost another opportunity and how did it come to be much less important than the Arab League on the Libyan question?
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<br />First, although the AU had drafted a road map as early at March 10, it failed to win genuine support for it from both sides of the Libyan fray.
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<br />Second, the Arab League and Turkey’s support for Resolution 1973 provided, in Western eyes, sufficient legitimacy for Nato. Western and Arab interests coalesced in Libya. Resolution 1973 makes only scant reference to the AU, but emphasises the important role of the Arab League “in matters relating to the maintenance of international peace and security in the region”.
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<br />The resolution further notes that member states that have notified the secretaries-general of the UN and the Arab League are authorised to take “all necessary measures to enforce compliance with the ban on flights”. No mention of the AU. Should the three African states on the UN Security Council not have sought to insert the AU into that paragraph?
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<br />Third, once Resolution 1973 was passed by the UN Security Council, the AU failed to recognise that if it wanted to stay in the game it would have to escalate its diplomatic engagement (given its absence of hard power) not only with the Libyan parties, but critically with Nato, the Arab League and key countries such as France, the UK, the US, Turkey and Qatar. The Nato sorties, supporting the armed rebels, inevitably shifted the balance of power in Libya.
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<br />Fourth, it was extremely unlikely that the Europeans particularly would cede any political initiative to the AU – not only for the oil, but because Libya borders on the EU. African migrants have used Libyan shores as a springboard to enter Europe for a long time; the upheaval engendered by the Arab Spring across the southern Mediterranean exacerbated this, with the concomitant anti-migration backlash in Europe.
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<br />Last, while the AU’s Constitutive Act provides for involvement in members’ affairs where there have been gross violations of human rights, the fact remains that the AU lacks the political will (and often the means) to play hardball with some of its recalcitrant leaders who flaunt the very principles that the organisation is meant to espouse.
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<br />The West and Arab states were not going to rely on the AU. A drawn-out process of negotiation, while Gaddafi waged a war of attrition on the opposition, was not going to be permissible. Thus, once the “dogs of war” were unleashed, the AU’s road map lost any political capital it may have had as a credible alternative: ostensibly open to the AU’s overtures, Gaddafi would have stalled rather than negotiate himself out of power, and Nato’s entry meant that the rebels sniffed victory.
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<br />Lest we forget, Resolution 1973 was adopted in the face of an escalating brutal assault on protesters by an increasingly belligerent Gaddafi, who had failed to heed the calls from many quarters (including the AU) to cease military operations against civilians. Reforms had been promised several times but never carried out. In February and March Gaddafi calculated that the rebellion could be crushed. He was in no mood to negotiate with “rats”.
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<br />Furthermore, the Libyan uprising was part of the wave of grassroots uprisings against dictators (mostly West-aligned) that started in Tunisia. Even the Libyan leader had been rehabilitated in Western eyes a few years earlier. The cry in the Arab streets was for an end to these oligarchic regimes that had led to economic hardships.
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<br />Ironies abound, of course: the Arab League’s membership is hardly a who’s who of democracy; the TNC’s democratic credentials still need testing; and Bahrain, where Saudi Arabia helped to quash protests against the state, is not the object of the same concerted international response. “Regime change” was inevitable, but probably should not be articulated so unashamedly by Western powers, and the rebels have perpetrated crimes against civilians, too. Yet, these do not exonerate a megalomaniac dictator who did not realise that his time was up.
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<br />The AU often hesitates in condemning African leaders who use violence to obliterate internal opposition. Its intention may be to avoid escalation, but when is the right time to escalate the firmness of the dialogue and when is the time to use a combination of tools to effect an outcome? As the AU hopefully assesses its performance over the last few months, these are the tough questions it must seek to understand.
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<br />The AU rightly opposes unconstitutional changes of government, but still has to resolve the dilemma of what to do with regimes that provide no real political space for opposition and political contestation.
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<br />So what should be the AU’s next steps? Its road map may still be relevant in principle, but developments have overtaken it. The Libya Contact Group has met. The “Friends of Libya” will meet in Paris on Thursday. The AU and six African states (including South Africa) are only observers at the Contact Group. The AU can’t expect to influence outcomes in Libya from the margins of the locus of power or by running a parallel process to that of the Contact Group. It should seek to integrate its high-level ad hoc committee into these processes.
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<br />It should also recognise the TNC. Not doing so quickly will make it more irrelevant in the post-Gaddafi Libya and unable to play a meaningful role in pushing for, as its August 26 communiqué said, “an inclusive transitional government, the establishment of a constitutional and legislative framework for the democratic transformation of Libya… and the national reconciliation process”. The latter should be linked to a transparent investigation of atrocities committed by both sides. At the Security Council, South Africa, with Brazil and India, should argue strongly for the UN to reclaim its central role in the process, as the Contact Group reports have argued. If the AU does not take these actions now, its objections to its marginalisation will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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<br />EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-73060503884334120982011-07-15T07:10:00.000-07:002011-07-15T07:12:06.311-07:00Asia’s Development Miracle and Africa’s Development Tragedy of the Late 20th Century: Key LessonsEYASU SOLOMON<br />1. Introduction<br /><br />At the time of decolonisation in the 1950s and 1960s, the level of economic development in most of Asia was comparable with that of Africa. For instance, four decades ago, the per capita income of South Korea was comparable with that of the Sudan in Africa. However, since the 1960s, South Korea has achieved an incredible record of growth to become one of the 26 richest countries in the world and was able to join the trillion dollar club of world economies in 2004 while the Sudan is still one of the 33 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in sub Saharan Africa (SSA).<br /><br />The Asian miracle and the failure of SSA in the late 20th century puzzles many development thinkers primarily because unlike the Asian countries, the African countries had relatively large endowments of natural resources and hence were expected to achieve higher economic growth in the post independence period.<br /><br />Although most African countries which gained independence in the 1960s showed rapid economic growth, their growth could not sustain beyond the first oil shock in 1973. By the early 1980s, African countries already began to show sings of economic stagnation and their external deficits had become so severe that donors and other financers were no longer willing to continue to provide support. Thereafter and following the 1980 Washington Consensus, most African countries were forced to adopt the neoliberal Structural Adjustment Programmes prescribed by the World Bank and IMF. However, the outcomes of these programmes were often controversial and sometimes counterproductive.<br /><br />Meanwhile the divergence in economic performance between Africa and Asia continued. Average annual GDP growth rates for SSA were 1.7% over 1980-90 and 2.1% over 1990-97 while that for East Asia was 7.8% and 9.9% respectively (World Bank, 1999) (in Masware, 2006). While much of the SSA growth was in agriculture, most East Asian growth was in industry. In SSA, real GDP growth has seen a general decline from about 3% in the late 1970s to about 1% in the following decade recovering only slightly in the 1990s ( Lawrence and Thirtle, 2001). On the other hand, for the rapidly growing Asian economies also known as the high performing Asian economies (HPAEs) per capita income growth has been positive since the 1960s. Thus East Asia became an undisputed development success while SSA became a development tragedy of the late 20th century.<br /><br />The rest of the paper is organised as follows: section 2 provides a comparative development perspectives for the two regions. Section 3 presents Africa’s opportunities and challenges in the 21st century while section 4 concludes.<br /><br />2. Africa and Asia’s Economic Performance Compared <br /><br />As stated earlier, after a relatively higher growth during the first decade of independence, the economies of SSA stagnated while countries in East Asia which were at similar level of development with SSA in early 1960s showed rapid and sustainable economic growth. Over the period 1965-89, real per capita annual growth of SSA averaged less than 0.5% compared to 5% for the high performing Asian economies which included Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand (Maswana, 2006). As a result in 1997, SSA GDP per capita was US$560 as compared to per capita income of US$4,230 for Latin America, $750 for China and $24,710 for the industrial world (Maswana, 2006).<br /><br />In its 1993, The East Asia Miracle Report the World Bank (in Maswana, 2006) offered number explanations for rapid growth in this sub region. Among these high savings and investment rates, a relatively high degree of equality, high growth rates of human and physical capital, high productivity growth, (including agriculture), and high growth rates of manufactured exports were considered to be key drivers.<br /><br />Development theory and practice indicates that economic development generally consists of nations undergoing a series of structural transformations from tradition bound, less productive and less profitable activities to modern technology bound, more profitable and value-added activities. According to Clark and Roy (1997) (in Maswana, 2006), this transformation include the change from less sophisticated to more sophisticated agricultural techniques, from an agricultural to a manufacturing, to perhaps service economy, from light to heavy to high tech industries in post agriculture economies.<br /><br />While structural tranformation was sustianed and rapid in Asia whose manufacturing export jumped from 22% of merchandise exports in 1963 to 87% in 2000, SSA experienced only a slight change from 7% to 20% in the same period (Maswana, 2006). The main reason for such failure in SSA worng governement developeemnt strategy that neglected the agrciutlture sector. Since the 1960s, the level of the public resources allocated to agriculture in SSA has been consistently low relative to the sectros’s size and contirbution to the GDP. Accoridsng to the World Bank (2000) (in Maswana, 2006), in most African countries, the sector recieves less than 10% of the public investment spending while the sector accounts for about 30-80% of the the GDP.<br /><br />Another reason for the divergence in growth performances between East Asia and SSA was disparities in savings and investment rates. Saving rates nearly doubled in some countries in East Asia, where they averaged 30% of disposable income between 1984 and 1993 , while SSA’s already modest savings rates fell to 10 to 15% (World Bank , 1999) (in Maswana, 2006). During the period 1980-2004, the savings rates in Africa was 16% of GDP, but it was erratic and remained lower than investment rates of 19% for the same period while savings and investment rates in Asia averaged 30% in the same period and the saving rates in Asia have surpassed investment rates in Asia since the 1990s (Maswana, 2006).<br /><br />In addition, Asia received an increasing capital flows while capital flows to Africa were limited. In 2007, Asia received over 62% of the FDI destined to the developing countries and the region is regarded as the most preferred destination for foreign investment in developing countries while Africa received only about 10% of the FDI flows to the developing countries.<br /><br />Moreover, Africa’s trade and industrialisation strategy lacked the dynamism observed in Asia and elsewhere. During the first decades of independence both SSA and East Asia followed Import Substitution Industrialisation strategy that was meant to create domestic industrial base that would be able to compete with the rest of the world at a later stage. However, while Import Substitution Industrialisation strategy in Asia created a foundation for a transition to export-led industrialisation which later served as an engine of growth in the region, in Africa the import substitution strategy led to currency overvaluation, development of parallel currency markets and shortage of foreign exchange required to purchase intermediate inputs used to produce both tradable and non tradable goods and hence transition to the export led industrialisation strategy never materialised.<br /><br />However, there is no general agreement regarding the causes of rapid development in East Asia. As stated earlier, the causes of rapid development in East Asia are considered to be high rates of saving and investment, appropriate politics, policies, and bureaucracy, investment in human and physical capital, and technology, and promotion of agriculture, export orientation, entrepreneurship, the cultural dimension, and the state with active intervention.<br /><br />Although there seems to be no general agreement regarding the causes of the East Asian economic miracle of the late 20th century, there is a general consensus on the importance of the following factors: high rates of savings and investment, investment in education, capital accumulation, sound macroeconomic management, relatively open trade policy, dynamic agricultural sector, maintenance of relatively equitable income distribution, and political credibility.<br /><br />However, still there is no single East Asian development model that can be replicated in Africa. Instead, there are different experiences, policies and outcomes. Booth (2001) (in Lawrence and Thirtle, 2001) argues that there are at least three models of east Asian development: These are (a) a manufactured export led, state interventionist model based on the experience of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, (b) the freeport commerce and service dominated model of Hong Kong and Singapore, and (c) the natural resource model of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.<br /><br />The SSA’s success could depend on more noneconomic lessons from Asia, such as the existence of national identity and political commitment to growth with equity. In contrast to the developmentalist and distributive role of the state, especially in Korea and Taiwan, where relatively authoritarian states identified their maintenance of power with a successful economy, the SSA authoritarian states have become kleptocracies (Lawrence and Thirtle, 2001).<br /><br />Lawrence and Thirtle (2001) highlight further three essential policy options: First, policies to support agriculture are important, but should be based on price incentives and market opportunities. Second, industrial policy may be ill advised because of the difficulty of identifying target manufacturing industries. Finally, trade liberalization based on the removal of domestic distortions would be the best option for SSA.<br /><br />3. Africa’s Development Opportunities and Challenges in the 21st Century <br /><br />After a period of falling per capita incomes that started in the 1970s, African economies began finally to turn around from about 1995, with initially modest increase in per capita incomes (Bigsten and Durevall, 2008). Since 2001 the African economic turn around has become real and sustainable with average growth rates of over 6% per annum partly due to the resources price boom but also due to improved economic policies.<br /><br />The progress has been largely due to improved policy performance, particularly the adoption of less-distorted macroeconomic frameworks, increased reliance on private sector as a driving force for economic growth, and the improvement in governance in many countries. Although the political news is largely mixed, the emergence of more participatory government regimes has improved confidence and modestly increased investment in more sub regions of the continent (UNECA, 1999).<br /><br />However, SSA is still one of the least developed sub region with massive poverty and underdevelopment. Thus while there are opportunities for SSA to claim the 21st century there are numerous challenges.<br /><br />Studies have shown that to reduce poverty in Africa by half during 1999?2015, balanced policies to enhance economic growth and reduce inequality and an average annual rate of growth of at least 7 per cent are minimum requirements. Policies and programmes that promote broad-based, labor-absorbing patterns of growth are critical to ensuring that the poor participate and benefit from income growth. Poverty has a root in the interlinked population, environment, and development dimensions and must be tackled accordingly (UNECA, 1999).<br /><br />Another change is Africa’s ability to join the information revolution. Africa is the most subdivided continent?with 165 borders demarcating the region into 52 countries, 22 of which have a population of 5 million or less, and 11 of which have a population of under 1 million. The limitations of size are very real from demand and supply points of view, and this makes regional cooperation a sine qua non for competitive entry by any individual African country into world markets. There is also a need to broaden the concept of regionalism and accordingly rethink Africa’s regional integration strategy (UNECA, 1999).<br /><br />Industrialization is the key to increasing Africa’s participation in world commerce and finance, is crucial to the structural transformation of Africa’s economy, and provides the platform for enhancing Africa’s competitiveness in an increasingly globalized economy. Yet the level of Africa’s industrialization remains low, as illustrated by three key facts: first, there are only a handful of countries where manufacturing as a share of GDP exceeds 25 per cent?the benchmark for considering a country as having achieved the threshold of industrial take-off; second, the export composition of African countries continues to be dominated by primary rather than by processed or semifinished products; third, the ratio of public expenditure and private investment in scientific research and development remains minuscule as a percentage of GDP in all African countries (UNECA, 1999).<br /><br />The continent has to devise polices to attract FDIs, has to rapidly expand human and physical infrastructure and fully participate in the global information revolution.<br /><br />Africa has to build its capacities to accelerate growth to 8 per cent per annum and sustain it at that level well into the second and third decades of the 21st century. Only addressing these issues will prevent countries which are recovering at present from slipping back into stagnation. Thus, in spite of the recent good news, the challenges ahead for Africa to deepen economic and social progress and to sustain it over the next two decades are formidable.<br /><br />Africa is a region with a very high economic risk. This means that both domestic and intentional investors demand a very high risk premium on their investment in the continent. Therefore the quality and stability of the economic environment within which economic agents operate depends on the institutional structure and the quality of government. Although the recent process of democratisation and some improvements in the process of governance are encouraging, the low quality of governance is still the most severe development problem in Africa (Bigsten and Durevall, 2008). Africa has to address the governance challenge as a matter of urgency to sustain and improve the current growth opportunities.<br /><br />4. Concluding remarks <br /><br />Although SSA and East Asia were at comparable level of economic development during the decades of decolonisation, East Asia quickly outperformed Africa in economic advancement. There is now a general consensus on the importance of the following factors in ensuring rapid development in East Asia : high rates of savings and investment, investment in education, capital accumulation, sound macroeconomic management, relatively open trade policy, dynamic agricultural sector, maintenance of relatively equitable income distribution, and political credibility.<br /><br />Due to these factors East Asia achieved rapid transformation from non sophisticated, low-valued added economic activities to highly sophisticated high-tech led and highly profitable modern economies. On the other hand, Africa remained the poorest and the most marginalised continent in the world.<br /><br />However, after more than two decades of decline, the African economies saw a turnaround beginning in mid 1990s. The turn around has accelerated since 2001 with sustained annual average growth in excess of 6%. However, to meaningfully reduce the rampant poverty in the continent in the foreseeable future, the continent needs to accelerate its growth to over 8% per annum.<br /><br />There is no single East Asia development model that can be replicated in Africa. To achieve and sustain higher growth levels, Africa needs to devise balanced economic polices that put the private sector at the centre of economic growth and job creation, rapidly expand human and physical infrastructure and fully participate in the global information revolution, industrialise rapidly, devise polices to attract FDIs, and address the current severe problems of governance.<br /><br />References<br /><br />• Bigsten , A. and Durevall, D. 2008. The african economy and its role in the world economy. Current African Issues 40. The Nordic Africa Institute.<br /><br />• Maswana, JC, (2006). Economic Development Patterns and Outcomes in Africa and Asia. Congo Economic Review. Working Paper WP04/06-2006.<br /><br />• Lawrence, P. and Thirtle, C. (eds) (2001) Africa and Asia in Comparative Economic Perspective. New York: Palgrave.<br /><br />• UNECA, 1999. The ECA and Africa: Accelerating a Continent’s Development Chapter1. United Nations, ECA. http://www.uneca.org/publications/books/eca_and_africa/chapter1.pdf.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-36182213865869686012011-07-15T07:04:00.000-07:002011-07-15T07:05:22.887-07:00South Sudan: Opportunities and Challengesby Alex Vines<br />When South Sudan becomes the world's newest state on the 9 July, the opportunity is there to build a more sustainable and peaceful relationship with Khartoum and its neighbours. Joining the UN, African Union and other international clubs (including the Commonwealth) will be the easy part. Establishing a fully functioning state is a long term project. When the celebrations are over, South Sudan will begin the difficult task of state building.<br /><br />Few new states founded since decolonisation have faced the developmental challenges of land-locked South Sudan, a state which lacks infrastructure and economically is dependent on oil produced near the northern border, to the tune of around 95% of government revenue. Its vast agricultural potential has yet to be exploited.<br /><br />The challenges are huge<br />Peaceful co-existence with the North is critical. Khartoum needs to honour its promise to be the first to recognise the new state. A long shared history and ongoing commercial, cultural and political links mean that the two Sudans will remain intimately entwined.<br /><br />But internal politics in North and South Sudan have the potential to sour the relationship between the two states. The recent fighting and bombing of villages in South Kordofan in North Sudan will take on an international flavour after July 9. This is an area with considerable support for the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) who are the governing party in the South but will remain active as a political party in north Sudan. Links forged over decades of war with areas like the Nuba Mountains will continue to be relevant for Southern politicians.<br /><br />The legacies of the civil wars in Sudan remain unaddressed. Rival leaders who fought the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army/Movement in the south have been paid off or given grand titles to maintain their support. However this is not a sustainable long term strategy. Disgruntled commanders in the South have already rebelled against the government in Juba and this trend may well continue. South Sudan will need to create space to peacefully and openly manage dispute and expectations.<br /><br />The prognosis is not all bleak<br />Many doubted that Sudan would make it through the six years of transition mandated by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement without a return to full scale war - that it did is a testament to the benefits of peace. South Sudan will find new partners willing to make investments and sell goods and services. Tapping into resources, financial and human, especially from East Africa may give South Sudan a quicker route to prosperity.<br /><br />South Sudan's independence is a historic moment. It offers citizens a unique opportunity to put an end to over a century of conflict and marginalisation. International support can help state building but its sustainability will only come from the political vision and hard work of the South Sudanese themselves.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-51317783752247211712011-04-25T00:54:00.000-07:002011-04-25T00:56:18.440-07:00REVISITING ETHIOPIAWINET!By Mammo Muchie<br /><br />NES COMMENTARY. No.36<br /><br />Network of Ethiopian Scholars (NES)<br /><br />April 24, 2011<br /><br />“This is my plea to the new generation of African leaders and African peoples: work for unity with firm conviction that without unity there is no future for Africa…I reject the glorification of the nation-state, which we have inherited from colonialism, and the artificial nations we are trying to forge from that inheritance. We are all Africans trying to be Ghanaians or Tanzanians. Fortunately for Africa we have not been completely successful…Unity will not make us rich, but it can make it difficult for Africa and the African peoples to be disregarded and humiliated. And it will therefore increase the effectiveness of the decisions we make and try to implement for our development. My generation led Africa to political freedom. The current generation of leaders and peoples of Africa must pick up the flickering torch of African freedom, refuel it with their enthusiasm and determination, and carry it forward.”Julius Nyerere, First president of Tanzania<br /><br />‘The present consolidation of African states within the former colonial frontiers runs counter to much of what had been both predicted and desired during the colonial era. It was widely assumed that as soon as Africans came to freedom they would sweep aside the arbitrary boundaries imposed by the imperialists which cut across tribes and overrode the dictates of geography and economics. The continent had been partitioned to meet colonial convenience, but it would now be reshaped to realize its natural contours and return to its natural essence.’( Rupert Emerson,1962)<br /><br />“...Constructing a nation from scratch: We know we don’t have the knowledge. We know we do not have the resources. We know we do not have the experience. Our conclusion is: let’s face it.” Isaias Afewerki, current president of Eritrea (quoted from National Geographic, June 1996, p.87)<br /><br />Summary<br /><br />Failure to defend Ethiopia’s history, is also a failure to live up to the worthy expectations of all those who derive so much spiritual energy from the idea of Ethiopia as a free provider to the world of the ‘resistance-liberation logocentric imagination’ that is much needed as a tangible resource still in vulnerable and penetrable Africa. Ethiopia is synonymous with the very idea of a de-colonising imagination. Its history of successful resistance is the timeless bearer of this alternative decolonising logo for the spread of the African world’s liberation imagination. Ethiopia- as an anti-colonial symbol- is very relevant today, as it was yesterday and will be too in the future. The significance of Ethiopia’s history now, at a time when Africa is being re-threatened with war needs to be appreciated. Its importance during this time when the former colonial powers are returning to Africa with military aggression cannot be lost to both those willing to resist the new aggression and those who commit this latest aggression. At the core of Africawinet is this Ethiopiawinet that is a bearer of dignity and resistance to the repeated humiliation Africa is confronted with by external aggression. Ethiopiawinet is at the core of the African renaissance. It is also at the core for ending Africa’s repeated humiliation. This is because African unity can be anchored with a value and dignity that Ethiopiawinet attained over 500 years of resistance. This achievement by the Ethiopian-Africans that resisted all forms of humiliation is a positive data for building Africa’s united future and to bring back the African unity first agenda to the fore today. It is for these reasons we respect our ancestors, whatever their shortcomings, and problems they were unable to solve in their life times and left behind for future generations to settle. They left the timeless inspiring resources to build Africa’s united future. The positive data they left us in the Ethiopian history remains to this day a relevant asset to build Africa’s much united future. Ethiopians now and in the future must always value and treasure this great historical achievement and not play the current ugly, divisive and cynical ethnic games that the selfish ruling elite play by dividing and degrading this core provider of Africa’s overall liberation imagination into vernacular-ethnic enclaves. Ethiopians as Africans and not as degraded ethnie must unite and strive to make ethnicism as a past by coming together with foresight and sense of history. They should do it now and not tomorrow to restore the historical imagination that will make a difference to the African world as a whole!<br /><br />1. What is Ethiopiawinet?<br /><br />Ethiopiawinet should be built and developed from the following characteristics Ethiopia has to this day:<br /><br />a) Long history-perhaps as long as Persia’s and China’s,<br />b) An internally generated civilisation (written, art, architecture, music, religion and so on),<br />c) A history of resisting and scoring victories against economically and politico- militarily superior forces,<br />d) A unique psychological make up where the notion of the divine and the sacred graces every activity that the people engage in.<br /><br />The individual, the state and the nation use for their lives divine presence whether they are Christians, Muslims, Judaic and even Pagans. The state had its own ethos and had its own ‘Fetah Negist’ and ‘Kibre Negist.’ In war we note how the idea of the divine is invoked to give courage to the troops when they charge(e.g. Giorgis’s participation in Adwa!) and in victory the people show humility by referring that all their power is due to God.<br /><br />Whether we like it or not religion is a way of life to the rural majority of the population. And the change we want, the modernisation we seek is to make life better for the majority of the rural areas. We do not go and preach Jeffersonian democracy or Marxism to them. If we are serious we go and learn from them and build on their beliefs and make modernisation sensible by translating it into the language and way of life they are used to. This is how Japan, Korea and others did it by appreciating their context but not rejecting it like the strange ruling elites that replaced the traditional system are doing now!<br /><br />Even China with its Marxism did not reject Menicusian, Confucian, Taoist and Buddhist values which the population had. They tried to Sinnify their modernist weapon Marxism so that the people can embrace it. Like everything else which came into contact with China, Marxism became absorbed rather than the other way round! They call it Marxism which Chinese characteristics and in reality in China Marxism was not used like in Ethiopia. Mao Tse Tung started by investigating first the peasant movement in Hunan where he was born, not by throwing half-baked and non-comprehended phrases from Lenin and Stalin. He did not select phrases that insult to persecute and even kill his comrades as it happened in Ethiopia. Never forget in Ethiopia after people were killed, the strangest things also have taken place where apparently along with the dead body was placed 'I was a dog' and I deserve to be killed -- or some strange ani-Ethiopian and anti-humane things were done! When a person dies in Ethiopian culture, one always tries to remember the good the person did by trying to forget the bad the person did. This is the noble culture that was inherited from Ethiopia’s past that was abused by doing these strange things to dead bodies!<br /><br />There is an Ethiopian value system from our tradition that we need to bring back and blend with modernisation. The core ideas are the four key principles of Ethiopiawinet. We need to treasure them, not fight Ethiopiawinet! What makes the person from the South to those in the North connect mysteriously is this shared experience which was passed on from the wider Ethiopian culture confluence and communication.<br /><br />2. The Mistakes of our Generation<br /><br />Our generation was engaged in intellectual copying. We ignored both<br />history and reality and embarked on a journey that has cost Ethiopia<br />dearly. Basically we said because Marx, Engels and Lenin are right,<br />Emperor Twedros, Yohannes, Menelik and Haile Selassie are wrong. This was a very dogmatic logic, ignoring both historical evidence and reality. Did we not pay a price badly for this. We still do. We better ground ourselves from our own history, our own challenges and how to change society by a process of grounded appreciative theorising. We did not do this. We need to bring back the anti- colonial and anti- imperialist and<br />nationalist imagination coming naturally from Ethiopia’s history that continues to be treasured by Africans the world over.<br /><br />Our generation rejected this by mounting two major myths: a) the Dergue employing Jacobin-Stalinist terror tried to force its hackneyed “Marxism” down the throat of the bewildered population, b) the various ethnic based fractional movements echoing rhetorics from China, Albania, Vietnam and so on tried to create ideologies of Tigreanism, Eritreanism, Oromoism and recently Amharism and anything and everything but Ethiopianism. They even have ethnic flags. We have many flags in Ethiopia now, not one flag that I see every day also in much of Africa and the rest of the world. Others are proud to use the Ethiopian flag, whilst the ruling ethnic elite diversify the number of flags to entrench ethnicism and undermine Ethiopian history. <br /><br />Ethiopia is in a strange paradox: Ethiopia reminds me of Witgestein’s prescient remark of a nation being run by elites who are trying to disrupt its future by climbing through the chimney and the window of ethnic fragmentation, when all along the Ethiopiawinet as Africawinet door to build its glorious future has been wide open.<br /><br />What is wrong with holding on and inheriting our Ethiopia and add modernisation, renewal and democratisation without breaking the framework and subtracting the nation and parcelling the state? Do we need to regress by relying on the politicisation of culture, language and blood to blackmail our way into power with Ethiopia as it is or by breaking it up altogether?<br /><br />I believe the best and most possible cultural rights and expression for all the ethnic communities without subjecting them to ethnic cleansing and other violence is feasible with a healthy Ethiopiawinet. I do not see why we should not organise by affirming Ethiopawinet and maintain active local engagement wherever we come from. The key is to democratise the state, individual and the nation by affirming and not being condescending <br />to the past.<br /><br />The theory of the nation which decomposes Ethiopia by weaving the myths of Tigreanism, Eritreanism, Oromoism and so on goes counter to the core experience of the people, their long history, tradition, character and above all their historically evolved nationhood and state formation.<br /><br />The Lenin-Stalin notion of the nation which the fractionalisers have imported their divisive politics from to Ethiopia is too scholastic, mechanistic, and deterministic. Itemising factors of language, territory, psychological make up and unleashing every petty nationalist bigot to search how his ethnic group might fulfil one or the other factor in full or in part is one of the most unattractive ventures which corrupts science and social practice at the same time.<br /><br />Neither the ethnicism of Tigreans, Oromos and so on and nor Stalin’s shopping list definition of a nation are relevant to the Ethiopian situation. They cannot be a higher reality to the experience of our people. An experience where there was injustice along with civilisation, a history of epic resistance and a unique psychological make up involving the concept of the sacred in the every day living of all Ethiopians. The attack on this divinely graced Ethiopianet ” wukabi gefafi new” (is de-spiritualising/demeaning!)!<br /><br />It has been said that the longer we look back in the history of a nation, the further we can look forward or forge ahead in building a collective future. It has also been claimed that history is to a nation as a memory is to an individual. For an individual to lose memory is to lose a grip of reality. It has been a maxim held by African sages: ’They lost their history, so they lost everything.’ A nation, if it wishes to remain a nation must not be denied its right and indeed privilege to make a conception of history that <br />yields direction and a future and insulates it from falling into a directionless and chaotic path like present day Somalia.<br /><br />Arguably, contemporary challenges and demands must be taken into account into a nation’s history-making processes, but they must also be confronted to avoid the mindless rejection of Ethiopia’s historical achievements and the intelligent learning from the innumerable failures that is necessary to do individually and collectively as a people. Anything made at the expense of making a nation lose its historical identity, which is not, incidentally constituted from more than the sum of the arithmetic additions of a sum of languages, religions, territory, number of people in an ethnic group, and other variables is to undermine the ontological foundation of Ethiopia as an idea, a dream, project and nation.<br /><br />Those who wish to opt out make not only themselves suffer, but also those who wish to remain with a positive and constructive rather than destructive and negative appreciation of Ethiopia’s long history. We have seen what came of Eritrea after leaving Ethiopia? We were told Eritrea would be <br />the South East Asian tiger, but is it that now? Is that what has become of Eritrea by the EPLF’s and TPLF’s gratuitous saying good bye to Eritrea’s core history which is tied with an umbilical chord with Ethiopia’s long social-economic history. History provides self-knowledge to a nation and that self-understanding is a necessary condition to undertake any meaningful development. Lack of consciousness of a nation’s history is not simply an intellectual failure. It can be a moral failure as it can expose unnecessarily a nation to unpredictable danger and suffering. We owe it to our ancestors who bequeathed a nation with history to avoid extremism, negotiate out of our conflicts, and find mechanisms to make social peace amongst individuals, communities and personalities.<br /><br />It is with a larger purpose and depth of thinking, commitment and dedication that we should cherish both the long memory and current meaning to us of being Ethiopian. There is intrinsic merit to preserve this ancient nation, and not give in to the degrading mantra of ethnic enclosures that has degraded civic Ethiopian citizenship to a particularly virulent and limiting concept of the ethnically defined and vernacularly fenced off citizen. This primordially and biologically condemned citizen must be fully liberated to emerge as the Ethiopian citizen par excellence. There can be no compromise on the Ethiopian and African framework for citizen expression and engagement. Everything is negotiable once the framework is accepted. There can be no negotiation with those who arrogantly and impudently call Ethiopia a fiction and an invention. Without the idea of Ethiopia, there is no idea of a future. Let us not forget that Ethiopia was the first non-European country that defeated a European power. The Japanese sent delegations to learn how Ethiopians organised to defeat a European imperial power. Many Africans in the Diaspora from America to the West Indies were inspired to continue the struggle for liberation owing to this historic achievement. Ethiopia can achieve even more by doing away with tyranny and poverty for good provided it overcomes the pettiness of its politics and reach out to the grand vision of historical presence.<br /><br />I ask all of you to memorise!<br /><br />The world fears time<br />Time fears history<br />History fears Ethiopia!<br /><br />Mammo Muchie, DST/NRF Research Professor of Innovation Studies, Also Professor DIR, Aalborg University, Senior Research Associate, SLPTMD, Oxford University,UK. <br />He can be contacted from any of the links below!http://www.nesglobal.org/symp125/ http://www.nesglobal.org/wshop/node/6<br />http://agda.uonbi.ac.ke<br />www.ajstid.com<br />www.nesglobal.orgEYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-55039220962778655562010-09-07T06:47:00.001-07:002010-09-07T06:53:50.168-07:00The dilemma of exchange rate devaluation arrangements as solution for inclusionBy:-Eyasu Solomon <br /> - Eyasusolomon@AOL.com<br />Exchange rate Volatility is a measure of risk, whether in asset pricing, portfolio optimisation, option pricing, or risk management, and presents a careful example of risk measurement, which could be the input to a variety of economic decisions. What was surprising and interesting about Ethiopia's move is that the devaluation was not undertaken under the usual duress of “macroeconomic adjustment.” Devaluation helps because it increases exports and reduces imports, thereby increasing the foreign exchange position; and it also reduces domestic spending and brings it more in line with a country’s production.In this instance, however, the devaluation seems to target structural change, to boost the tradable sector so that it can provide the basis for long run growth. Volatility of exchange rates describes uncertainty in international transactions both in goods and in financial assets. Exchange rates are modeled as forward-looking relative asset prices that reflect unanticipated change in relative demand and supply of domestic and foreign currencies, so exchange rate volatility reflects agents’ expectations of changes in determinants of money supplies, interest rates and incomes. I see it differently. Tradable sectors and exports can indeed be key for development. And Africa’s tradable sectors are handicapped by aid and natural resource revenues, which tend to promote non-tradable sectors and encourage consumption over production As Ethiopia considering implementing changes in their development strategies, now is an opportune time to investigate the issue of weather alteration, in exchange rate arrangement have an effect on economic growth or to what extent exchange rate volatility may be responsible for variation in the rate of economic production. Because such moves are accompanied by increase in the volatility of both, nominal and real exchange rates. So, three slightly different takes on this Ethiopian move would be the following. First, this devaluation can be seen—not as actively favoring or even subsidizing some sectors as it would be in the case of China, for example—but as offsetting a previous distortion (aid and resource revenues). Second, instead of viewing this as creating investor uncertainty, it can perhaps be seen as a credible and durable pre-commitment to promoting structural change (provided of course future actions are consistent with this move). The private sector can be assured that there would be durable advantage in investing in the tradable sector. Finally, the devaluation is heartening if it reflects a realization on the part of African policy-makers that the key to development is structural change but one that is brought about in a market-friendly manner rather than in the dirigiste manner of the past. <br />Real exchange rate uncertainty can have negative effects on both domestic and foreign investment decisions. It causes reallocation of resources among the sectors and countries, between exports and imports and creates an uncertain environment for investment. The most important reasons for a devaluation to trigger an aggregate demand contraction include: a redistribution of income towards those with high marginal propensity to save, a fall in investment, an increased debt burden, reduction in real wealth, a low government marginal propensity to spend out of tax revenue, real income declines under an initial trade deficit, increased interest rates, and increased foreign profits On the other hand, aggregate supply may suffer after devaluation because of more expensive imported production inputs, wage indexation programmes, costlier working capital. Frequent devaluation stimulates speculation, leading to confidence erosion.Such <br />practice of continuous devaluation not only result in distortions in income, consumption, industrial growth and public finance, but also disturb the harmonious blend of internal and external balance, affecting both monetary and fiscal indicators,e.g. exports, imports, manufacturing growth, money supply and so on. Demand for exports depends on economic conditions in foreign countries, prices (relative inflation and exchange rate), and perception of quality, reliability, and so on.According to the orthodox approach, the devaluation enhances competitiveness, increases exports and bends demand toward domestically produced goods, thus expanding the production of tradable. For demand and supply side contractionary effects “Imports” measuring purchases from abroad, add to well being but may displace domestic production and drain financial resources. Changes in imports prices reflect changes in foreign prices, exchange rates and quantity.<br />The lack of zeal of domestic corporate executives to engage investment in the industrial sector exposes finance capital to the hazard of foreign invasion, which implies thatforeign investors could take this advantage to expropriate the wealth of the nation, and thus hamper the strength of the Ethiopian economy because capital is mobile, and globalization is about interconnectedness and interdependence as the finance capital available in the economy is being moved at will to the economy of other states. Thus, globalization has brought about the domination of the Ethiopian economy since its basic export is woven around raw materials (the basis for production and further production), whereas export in Ethiopia promotes economic diversification abroad and restricts diversification in the domestic setting, placing the Ethiopian economy in an uncompetitive space in the global trade circle. Currency devaluation on the basis of a certain economic policy is something every nation does occasionally, more so amongst the developed nations than developing ones with the exception of China. Some 20 years ago Canada did it to stimulate the economy to pull it out of the early 1990s severe recession. Canada devalued the currency by 45% at some point. Then again, Canada is economically integrated with the US, over 80% is exported to the United States, and for that reason the devaluation was understandable. The timing also did have something to do with, a new trade regime was on its way being implemented (NAFTA) US did not mind for the border town States benefited from the exchange rate advantage of importing Canadian goods and products to present it for the voracious appetite of US consumers.<br />Although the depreciation would take only a year and half but raising it back to the level it was prior to the recession, it would take over seven years. Because it would be very risky for the confidence of the Canadian economy to maintain that low exchange rate after the economy got its wing to fly, foreign investors cannot get a good return for their PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com investment if that low exchange rate was maintained, so instead of attracting few more investors the currency devaluing nation can lose many more investors. So, one has to show confidence on their economy by maintaining strength on their currency to reflect a good management and command.<br />Given the above example its not a bad idea for Ethiopia to devalue BIRR, however the trade deficit Ethiopia has is far greater to compensate by the export increase it will have no matter how large the export is, because Ethiopia is an 80 million nation with trade deficit is into billions. So devaluing the currency may encourage one time (short term) investors to come and take advantage but they will leave once that advantage runs its course. Those who buy real estate would benefit from the exchange rate advantage it will give them, but all others things will rise immediately after. As illustrated above, Ethiopia is an import economy nation. In the long term the country could lose its ability to maintain that same juice stimulant for an extended period of time knowing the way I know Ethiopia. China on the other hand can manipulate its currency as much as it wants for however long it desires for it has a huge reserve, essentially driving the world currency exchange rate. Alluding to the fact, if one controls the US currency, one has the world in their pocket. Ethiopia does not have excessive reserve like China does, as a matter of fact Ethiopia is running a yearly deficit economy, which means it cannot do what China does and come out unscathed. It may help it for a one time currency collection by giving the labor of the citizens to the foreign investor accumulating the extra 20% and using that extra juice the one time foreign investor can increase the margin of profit by a 20%.<br />However, that’s where it stops. The nation would have to devalue its currency furtherdown in order to get another stimulant juice; the question then becomes where the devaluing stop does. The basic adjustment policy dilemma may be easily illustrated by the simplest of all open economy frameworks where:exports, imports, aggregate domestic output, consumption, investment and government expenditure. Matters would be relatively clear cut if there were well defined correct and incorrect policies relating to macroeconomic stability, microeconomic efficiency and openness.<br />A bad harvest, or a fall in export prices may reduce both export revenue and taxrevenue. Or, where sovereign debt is denominated in US dollars, an increase in worldinterest rates or an appreciation in the US dollar will lead to an increase in vernment expenditure expressed in domestic currency. Apart from such exogenous shocks, it may also be the case that the characteristics typically found in Ethiopia make it more of a challenge to conduct macroeconomic management. It may be more difficult to control government expenditure, to increase tax revenue, to avoid monetising fiscal deficits, to control the supply of money and to pursue inflation targeting. Exchange rate depreciation may also be less effective if the inflation it induces impedes its relative price effect, if foreign trade price elasticities are relatively low.<br />Similarly, the counter-inflationary effects of overvalued exchange rates are unlikely to offer sufficient compensation for the erosion of international competitiveness and the expectations of devaluation to which they lead. Policy prescriptions relating to structural adjustment and the supply side. There is less consensus surrounding the causes of economic growth and the effects of openness, with the consequence that there is more debate and disagreement about what policies will increase aggregate supply in the long run. What is the appropriate role of the state? To what extent will privatization stimulate PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com growth? Which elements of government expenditure show the biggest return in terms of economic growth? What is the impact of openness and trade liberalization on growth? <br />What is the connection between financial liberalization and growth? In what order should Ethiopia exhibit a relatively high degree of export concentration on commodities whose price in world markets is often unstable. At the same time, where the price is denominated in US dollars, variations in the price of the dollar may be another factor in determining how the international purchasing power of a specific volume of exports may change.<br />So where does this leave us? If it seems to imply that the issues are highly complex, that our understanding of them is still limited, that there is a potentially explosive combination of economics and politics, and that there are no easy answers, then it is because this is exactly what the situation is. But at the same time the absence of easy answers is not an argument for policy inaction. It is a matter of learning by doing, trying to avoid doing harm, and gradually evolving towards a better outcome.The technical (and political) question to be raised is the following: is it really possible – in order to raise and maintain economic growth at 11-15% per year for a longer time - to have a much better exchange rate for the current account balance and, at the same time, a lower nominal interest rate, without igniting inflationary pressures in the Ethiopian economy?<br />The answer – as always in macroeconomics – is maybe yes. It all depends on inflation expectations, exchange rate expectations, monetary and fiscal policy.Any simple macromodel normally suggests that, in an open economy, inflation is determined by expectations of inflation, the output gap and the rate of exchange devaluation. Additionally, it is well known that the interest rate differential with respect to the rest of the world tends to reflect the expected rate of exchange devaluation. Furthermore, economic growth depends on the existing output gap, as well as monetary and fiscal policy ( in addition to long-term trends, of course, such as productivity and demographics).Even a simple model like this shows that the major challenge is to promote a devaluation of the currency ( under fixed-but-adjustable rates or under dirtyfloating rates) which might be able to bring the expected rate of future exchange devaluations to zero or even “negative” figures. And, at the same time, it must represent a real devaluation, with a small impact on domestic inflation. Is that possible? Again: maybe yes.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-2962431950575002362010-09-03T05:29:00.002-07:002010-09-03T05:34:45.774-07:00“Merkato”, The Home of Two Religions<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EwLtB47xtdM/TIDqsQC5E_I/AAAAAAAAAbo/yZCFw6DZ4EA/s1600/thumb.php.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 200px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EwLtB47xtdM/TIDqsQC5E_I/AAAAAAAAAbo/yZCFw6DZ4EA/s320/thumb.php.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5512663989843727346" /></a><br />During the Jumaa prayers, Islamic parching (hutba) will be presented by the Imam. Sometimes it coincides with the sound of the Mass prayers from the church. The faithful will be disturbed by a mingled and distorted voice from the two loud speakers. St. Raguel’s Church has a big building on one side of the fence. The shops in the building exhibit the same confusion.<br />Mohamed Selman-Addis Ababa)<br /><br />This land, Ethiopia, is a piece of land on which the fear of God (Taqwa, in Arabic) overshadows; if anyone wants to prove this, just visit Piassa and Merakato, where gold is being sold like a pile of grain. I remember one of Addis Neger Newspaper’s articles titled, “Why Do The Ethiopian Poor Not Rob?”–that article had listed “the fear of God” as one reason why the Ethiopian poor do not rob.<br /><br />There is a saying about the skills of the Merkato thieves: “they can steal your tattoo without touching you”. But these same thieves are known for one thing–they will return your useful documents if they find them in their loot, and try never to kill while stealing. I think these guys would prefer not to steal for their living. What can I say, I am proud of my country’s God-fearing thieves!<br /><br />Ethiopia is recorded in both of the holy books of the great religions. Repeatedly, while we cannot find the US or the UK even once, Ethiopia is known for giving refuge to the disciples (Sahabas) of the Prophet Mohammed in the 7th century. When we speak about Ethiopia being named in the Bible repeatedly, we have to know that it includes Merkato–just because Merkato is found in Ethiopia.<br /><br />Among my childhood memories are the “thief beating scenes” in the great Anwar mosque. In the moment when the barefoot faithful go down and up in an act of worship, the shoe thieves are on duty. Some unfortunate thieves will be caught by the faithful and dealt mob justice. Everyone tries to beat the unfortunate thief at least once. Watching heavy people girding up their ceremonial robes to use their hidden acrobatic skills gave me a secret pleasure. These scenes also gave me a chance to contribute to the beating. I liked this scene so much that I even invited my Christian friends to watch it.<br /><br />They followed me to the mosque, for they also liked this ‘ritual’ In my childhood home, Merkato, even if they were not many, I had Christian neighbors. As the famous song of Teddy Afro goes, “Is it not Raguel (the church), Anwar’s (the mosque) neighbor?” When the time came for Ramadan fasting, our friendship strengthened. We celebrated the “Iftir” feast together. At dusk we went to my home to share the dates, the Asambusa, and sometimes the soup ready for the evening feast. They even sometimes helped me keep the fast by not eating their breakfast until mid-day (of course, this may sometimes have been because they lacked something to eat). We sometimes made fun of each other’s fasting cultures. They teased me, saying, “What is the difficulty in fasting in the day after eating in the night?” “How could you call this a fast since you eat shiro and lentils?” I remember that I was always the winner because my friends ate meat and other animals products so rarely that it was easy for me to mock them in return, chiding, “you are always in the Lent season!”<br /><br />My friends were happy during Ramadan because we could buy dates and enjoy them. They also repaid me during their Epiphany and Buhe celebrations. I was with them, playing the harmonica, on the day of Epiphany. The celebration of Buhe was also, for us, a day on which we collected money by singing the season’s traditional songs. It was only much later that I discovered that Buhe has a religious meaning. We celebrated those days not as religious holy days in which we acquired spiritual benefits; rather, we celebrated them as cultural feasts.<br /><br />I have no idea how the word “compromise” started to be used in framing the Muslim and Christian relations in Ethiopia. In my understanding, the Muslims and Christians in Ethiopia live together with love rather than compromise. I don’t like this word when it is applied in this context. I can clearly recall those relations tied with love from my childhood memories. Most of my childhood friends are now slipping out of religion. But some are strengthening their faith.<br /><br />Nowadays, I hear that singing the Buhe traditional songs is a Christian role. I urged by many not to have a friend who is from a different religion. The spiritual books I read sometimes have no love in them. Most of the literature contains warnings of the coming dangers of my religion and urgings of vigilence against them.<br /><br />The books that comprise the counterpart are also as dangerous as these ones. Some priests are preaching argumentative sermons. The same messages are being printed on T shirts, CDs and books. My Merkato today is full of these controversies.<br /><br />Ramadan and “Filseta”: one side of two coins<br /><br />In these fasting seasons, when the faithful turn their face to their God and the business of the fasting days mounts, Merkato hosts mobile churches and mosques carried by vehicles. Sermons broadcast by different loudspeakers adds chaos to the already busy marketplace. Gospel songs and Menzumas (Islamic songs) spread without limits. These “mobile churches and mosques” Coax bystanders with their proclamations–“buy this cassette and you shall be saved!” Similarly, they strive to increase the numbers of people who go to “Genet” and “jenet’.<br /><br />The 16-day fast of the Orthodox Church, Filseta Maryam (the assumption of Mary), is the second greatest fasting season–next to Lent.–for summoning the believers to church. Many Christians wearing netelas (Ethiopian traditional cloth) march to the church of St. Raguel. Multitudes of Muslim believers, who number a little greater than the Christians, also stride to the neighboring Anwar mosque. The reason for this is the Muslim’s fasting season, Ramadan. The priest’s mantle and the Muslim cape, the Christian netela and the Muslim robe go together until they reach their respective worship places. This scene reaches its highest peak on Fridays.<br /><br />The narrow road that divides the church from the mosque permits passage for only one vehicle. The number of the faithful in the worshiping places, on the contrary, far exceeds the space in the church and in the mosque. Because of this, the believers are forced to use the main roads, especially on the central days of prayers. During the Ramadan Jumaa prayers, Anwar mosque–which swells to four or five times its usual attendance—appropriates a third of Merkato as a place of prayer. The southern Cinema Ras, the western Tana Mall, (and sometimes Mierab Hotel), the northern Gojam Berenda, and the eastern American Gibi, mark the ends of the gathering. This forces the Christians and the Muslims to stand together for prayers. The Ramadan evening prayer, “Terawih”, requires a little more time than usual. The faithful park their cars around both of the places of worship. They pray beside the fences of the church, even designating the verandahs of the church buildings as temporary places of worship. I always wish to take photos of these scenes.<br /><br />During the Jumaa prayers, Islamic parching (hutba) will be presented by the Imam. Sometimes it coincides with the sound of the Mass prayers from the church. The faithful will be disturbed by a mingled and distorted voice from the two loud speakers. St. Raguel’s Church has a big building on one side of the fence. The shops in the building exhibit the same confusion. The upper part of the building houses a school named after the church, while the other floors are occupied by different shops. Most of the shops are selling mobile accessories and mobile phones; the western wing of the building has shops for bags, blankets and Christian songs. The shops of the eastern wing, however, are providing Islamic articles. The building café called “Henny Penny” provides Islamic foods and beverages for the Ramadan season. This cross-shaped building, owned by the church, has shops in which Islamic clothes and other articles for sale. Abaya, Niqab, Hijab, Bourqa, (all articles of Islamic women’s clothing) as well as some mats for Muslim prayers. Some may dismiss this as mere marketing but for me it holds greater significance” Our poor life style and our culture influence our social life, and this is apparent in our religions too. My mom never missed invitations to religious feasts in the house of a Christian priest. I do not remember choosing my childhood friends based on their religion.<br /><br />Some of my friends still remember the Arabic alphabets and some Qur’anic quotations they memorized in Islamic schools. In the same way, my Muslim neighbors and I have never considered the “Qes timihirtbet” (church based children’s school) to be more than a kindergarten. But this feeling seems to be absent in the new generation. Today’s Muslim friends of mine are more concerned about the issues of Iraq than their country. This might not be a mistake at all, but there seems to be some danger behind their allegiance. Most books in their homes are about “how to defeat the Zionist plot” or how other religions are working day and night to destroy Islam. The weekly newspapers also exaggerate Bin Laden’s destruction on the NATO forces.<br /><br />Plenty of such literature is being sold in the road that divides the mosque and the church. The books I saw on both sides while I was writing this article are enough to validate my concern on the issue.<br /><br />“The Identity of Jesus is Revealed”<br /><br />“For the Loss of the Scale the Gold Has Lost: Who Oppresses Women, Christianity or Islam?”<br /><br />“Jesus: is he a Prophet or a Creator”<br /><br />“Who Authored the Quran?”<br /><br />“Answer for Muslims: The Identity of Jesus”<br /><br />It is hard not to conclude that the tension between Anwar and Raguel, is representative of the entire country. Social life is weakening; ridicule for the other side seems to be strengthening. Such tensions were showcased in the recent past. The association known as “The Military Tera Retailers Share Company” conducted a meeting in the auditorium of St. Raguel Church. Because some of the members of the association were Muslims, they attended the meeting wearing their religious capes.<br /><br />The leaders of the meeting asked the Muslims to remove their capes since they were in the church compound. The Muslim members then demanded to know why they were called to the meeting if this was the case, and walked out of the meeting. Some of them even got physical. Where is the patience? Over the past two years, religious tension is growing and increasingly requiring government interference. Abay Tsehaye, the prime minister’s security affairs advisor, was busy trying to solve the general increase in religious tensions.<br /><br />The followers of both religions were using their religious holidays to demonstrate how strong their influences are by amassing believers in numbers. Sometimes they speak ill of each other but in an indirect way. They print threatening messages on T-shirts and spread them to their followers. They announced that this “island has no place for other religions. Seeing all of this, I seriously fear that our relationship is on the verge of ruin. The respected history of our relationship may be only history, unless Allah and God intercede for its redemption.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-51398953997388228892010-08-17T06:25:00.000-07:002010-08-17T06:31:46.483-07:00China's economyCHINA has become the world's second biggest economy according to data released on Monday August 16th. Japan's economy fell behind China's at market exchange rates in the second quarter (it has been number three in PPP terms for some time). These numbers are not strictly comparable: Japan's data have been seasonally adjusted while those for China have not. Quibbles aside, Japan will surely be eclipsed soon, if it has not been already. Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-40394395682615503592010-08-17T06:18:00.001-07:002010-08-17T06:23:01.591-07:00Harvard Once Again Tops the Best Colleges RankingsThis year, Harvard University regained sole possession of the top spot in U.S.News & World Report's Best Colleges 2011 rankings of national universities. Last year, Harvard and Princeton University tied for first, but Princeton fell to second in the 2011 rankings of these large, research-oriented institutions. Williams College can once again boast that it's the nation's top-ranked national liberal arts college—a category of schools that place a higher emphasis on undergraduate education—as it ranked a spot ahead of fellow Massachusetts liberal arts school Amherst College for the second consecutive year. <br />This marks the 27th year that U.S. News has published college rankings. Though the top-ranked schools garner much acclaim, the rankings aren't produced simply to benefit students who are considering attending institutions like Harvard and Williams. U.S. News uses its array of college data to provide insight to students of various academic and socioeconomic backgrounds. There is a list of the best schools for B students, rankings of historically black colleges and universities, as well as rankings of the most diverse national universities. And though the worst of the financial crisis seems to have passed, finding value in the increasingly expensive world of higher education is still one of the most important—if not the most important—factors in choosing a school. To meet that need, U.S. News has compiled best value lists for national universities and national liberal arts colleges, which rank schools based on the average cost of attending—after need-based grants are taken into account—relative to their academic ranking. <br />The National Universities and National Liberal Arts Colleges lists are just two of several sets of rankings that are a part of U.S. News's evaluation of Best Colleges. Regional colleges and universities, which tend to draw heavily from their local area, and tend to have sparse doctoral program offerings, are ranked separately. Villanova University, Rollins College, Creighton University, and Trinity University are the top-ranked Regional Universities—schools that offer degrees up to the master's level and were ranked as "Master's Universities" in the past—in the North, South, Midwest and West, respectively. The top-ranked Regional Colleges—schools that offer bachelor's degrees and were classified as "Baccalaureate Colleges" in previous rankings—are the United States Coast Guard Academy in the North, Ouachita Baptist University in the South, Taylor University in the Midwest, and the United States Air Force Academy in the West. <br />Though California's public educational system is plagued by financial unrest and budget cutbacks, two of the state's schools are ranked as the top public national universities. The University of California—Berkeley, which is the 22nd ranked national university, is the top-ranked public school, followed by the University of California—Los Angeles. Rounding out the top five publics: University of Virginia, University of Michigan—Ann Arbor, and the University of North Carolina—Chapel Hill. <br />Though schools at the top of the rankings deserve praise for their sterling academic standards, they shouldn't receive all of the credit. U.S. News asked college administrators to name schools they believe to have made sharp improvements to their academics and campus facilities. Based on the results, U.S. News ranked the top "Up and Comers" across several categories. The University of Maryland—Baltimore County was determined to be the fastest-improving national university and Hendrix College earned top billing for up-and-comers among National Liberal Arts Colleges. The best up-and-coming Regional Universities are Wagner College in the North, Elon University in the South, Butler University in the Midwest and Abilene Christian University in the West.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-7267638326713738972010-04-13T03:42:00.000-07:002010-04-13T03:44:32.130-07:00National Consciousness, Nation-State and the Problem of Economic DevelopmentNational Consciousness, Nation-State and the Problem of Economic Development <br /><br />Discussion Paper for Seminar presented to the Conference on Good Governance, <br /><br />Peace, Security, Sustainable Development in Ethiopia & the Horn of Africa, from April 9-11 <br /><br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br /> Introduction <br /><br /> <br /><br /> In times of a highly globalised world the essence of a Nation-State does not seem to be an issue for many developing countries. Since many developing countries, especially sub-Saharan African countries are depending on foreign aid, the question of nation-state and its relevance in maintaining social cohesion within given boundaries is not a question to be studied and discussed. It seems that many intellectuals and the political elite in many sub-Saharan African countries are not aware of the relevance of such a crucial question. The economic policies of the last six decades which many African countries had practiced and globalisation have practically eroded the issue of nation-sate from the minds of many leaders. <br /><br />In this highly complicated and globalised world the issue of national identity and nation-state become more urgent than ever before. Since many African leaders including the Ethiopian government(EPRDF government) are not governing their own affairs any more, even the uneducated people ask themselves, whether they are living in a sovereign country or not. Many people in Ethiopia ask themselves what could be left for the future generation if political vandalism becomes the order of the system. Leaving aside the problem of other African countries, what is going on in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia needs deep studies and scientifically validated answers if all these three nations will have in the future a functioning government, a dynamic economic system and a social order which can accommodate all groups in all these countries. Since the problem in Somalia directly and indirectly affects Ethiopia, we Ethiopians cannot ignore if things are out of control in Somalia. That does not mean that any Ethiopian government must interfere in the internal affairs of Somalia. What I want to say is the chaotic situation in any neighbouring country will have damaging effects for the stability of the entire region. As long as there is no durable peace the people of the region will be compelled to live in poverty and hunger. <br /><br />The issue of terrorism and economic globalisation and now land grabbing on a higher scale are putting many countries in a defensive position. Especially the war in Somalia which is going on in the name of fighting terrorism and the displacement of innocent people, and the bleak situation in Ethiopia and Eritrea are worrying some which attract many nations to convert the region to a permanent war field. Therefore it is our task to study the causes of war, hunger and underdevelopment so that we can give proper and durable solution. Political vandalism as we see in Ethiopia and Eritrea is culturally rooted in our society, and it is the result of unsolved and accumulated problems. In societies where integrated and well functioning economic structures and a social order do not exist, such kind of situation is suitable for political vandalism. In regions or countries where political disorder is the rule of the system, where political and social consciousness is not developed, foreign forces use the weak situation of such countries and try to manipulate the leaders to be dragged into war. The result will be dislocation of innocent people and wasting of human and natural resources. In this case what is going on in Somalia and the intervention of Ethiopia in the internal affairs of Somalia and the war between Eritrea and Ethiopia destabilise all the people who are living in that region. If we closely study the situation, the war in this region is a proxy war. The people of these countries are simply the victims of their ignorant leaders, who do not understand social history, and who are not capable of creating a system where all the people could freely exercise their creative power. <br /><br />In order to understand the complex situation that the region faces, we have to connect the problem of consciousness with the issue of economic development and this with the question of nation-state formation. I maintain that only social, cultural and political consciousnesses are the true foundation of genuine economic development and nation building. In the absence of national consciousness and deep understanding of historical and social processes, no country can build a viable nation-state. <br /><br /> The Issue of National Consciousness <br /><br />Let me ask some questions. Is there anything that can happen without the involvement of the mind? Isn’t it the mind which guides and controls us to do things in a way we like and plan or is it something else? What kinds of things shape our minds to behave irrationally or rationally? How do we perceive the role of culture in shaping our minds? I think these are some of the questions which we have to pose if we want to understand the role of consciousness in our relationship to a particular nation. <br /><br />In the academic circle, especially among Ethiopians there is a common belief that the absence of a democratic system is responsible for the plight of our people. Some of us may think that our leaders are by nature brutal and are not shaped by the cultural circumstances which prevail in our country. We have been accusing the Military regime to be brutal without taking into account the social and cultural context in which the military leaders are brought up. We forget that before the military leaders in Ethiopia became `socialists` they were trained by a military ideology which was produced outside the socialist block countries. The present regime of Meles Zenawi is being accused for his dictatorial, dived and rule system without trying to understand the circumstances in which Meles and his compatriots are brought up or were socialized. Such kinds of simplistic approach will not solve the problem in which our country finds itself in. We cannot get answer for such complex problems and irrational behaviour from the perspective of political science as if the issue is a pure political problem. In other words, even if we have a certain kind of `democratic rule` as we wish, the problem of underdevelopment and poverty will not easily be solved. Nor can one cope with the issue of war and hunger. If we want to get a definite answer we have to go beyond conventional politics and supposed democratic rules. <br /><br />It is not without reason that since three thousand years philosophers and psychologists have tried to investigate the role of the mind in understanding the way human beings feel, think and handle. They have well understood that without taking into consideration the role of the mind and the cultural situation of a given country, one could not grasp the nature of political leaders. From pre-Socratic philosophers to Socrates and Plato, and until the 17th century, the main occupation of philosophers was to investigate the different parts of the mind. Since human beings are different from animals, because they can think rationally and are able to change their environment, some are not in a position to use this God-given mental power to pose questions and behave rationally. They will be driven by emotion and their own will and destroy their own nation. Freud teaches us that there are three parts in our minds which are responsible for our behaviour. The first one is the oldest and most primitive part of the mind. In this part human beings have all sorts of wishes and primitive thinking. This part is devoid of any rational order and is guided by simple egoistic motive. The second part is the part which shapes and characterises the personality of an individual. It can be shaped by circumstances in which certain persons are brought up and are socialized. The role of teachers and parents play crucial roles in shaping this part of the mind. Through time and any kind of positive changes this part will be more and more socialised and becomes conscious. Its thinking and handling will be controlled by the given social circumstances which are prevailing in a given country. There is a permanent struggle between the egoistic or irrational part and the socialized part. In this case the third part takes the role of mediation and tries to balance both of the parts. In other words the egoistic part will be compelled to adapt to the given situation and handles in a way what the given social circumstance expects. According to Freud, the third part is responsible for cognitive thinking of the human mind, planning and decision-making. The problem here is that in certain circumstances the appetitive part will dominate, and irrational behaviour becomes the rule of certain groups. We have seen in history that though certain rulers are brought up in civilized circumstances their thinking and handling become irrational. Hitler is a vivid example of why even education cannot change the already fixed attitude of hate and aggressiveness. Thousands of scientists, philosophers’ musicians and men of theatre blindly followed Hitler and believed in his Nazi propaganda of eliminating the Jews and other minority groups. <br /><br />Human beings are like monads. They are active and perfect. They are self-contained, independent and act by themselves. They have internal power. Whereas the monads do not have windows, human beings can be influenced by external circumstance. If they are not in a position to question and analyse they will be victims of false ideology. In most cases human beings do not use their internal power to develop as an independent agent and act actively. Due to false education and ideology, the inner power that each possesses by nature will be eroded. In this case individuals will become the victim of false ideology, and their minds will be intrigued by hate and anger. They are not conscious any more of what they are doing. Even if they are educated they lack profound thinking. They will become suspicious and are not ready to accept criticism. Their minds will be closed for new ideas. Because they already have a fixed idea, they distance themselves from the masses. The lack of self-confidence makes them traitors and they are ready to sell their mother land. Such people do not understand the role of an individual in shaping its society and the relationship between an individual and the society in general. Concepts, such as society, individual freedom, genuine economic development and nation-state are not integrated in their minds. They think that a society is a loosely organised structure, in which everybody comes and does whatever he/she likes. When any country is governed by such kinds of unconscious elements, and when it has thousands of so-called educated people, the country in question cannot be an arena in which the citizens exercise their true freedom. Unfortunately, Ethiopia is governed since immemorial by such kinds of elements, and there are thousands of Ethiopians who become the victim of such kinds of manipulated education system. <br /><br />Now we can come to the role of culture in shaping the human mind. It is well investigated and studied that in early childhood stage proper education has a positive impact on the thinking capacity of a child and its handling. Likewise the entire circumstance, environment, school system, the role of parents and teachers, neighbourhood and other factors have roles in shaping the mind of a growing child. The humanness of a person, his love for others and his country and his entire environment depends on the education system in which one is brought up from the beginning of childhood. Especially the love of the parents is imminent in shaping the behaviour of a given child. One cannot regain the lost opportunity once a person is matured enough. By chance or with special therapy it may be possible to positively shape the character of an individual. <br /><br />To be concrete, when it comes to our country, why does Ethiopia have to experience such bloody years? Why its people have been suffering all the last four decades by those forces who are born, grown and went to school in Ethiopia? Though going to school means to get proper education in order to behave properly and humanly, why did those children become murderous? What motivates some to become agents of foreign forces which are struggling to dismantle Ethiopia? Why did they raise arms in the name of freedom though there are other means to bring smooth changes into our society? Can we blame as we usually do that a particular ideology did play a role in masterminding the so-called revolutionaries to behave irrationally? In our country and even in many earlier socialist countries communism as an ideology is being blamed for what happened in all these countries. The relative prosperity in many western capitalist countries including the United States over the last 5 decades has blinded our minds. We all have forgotten the atrocities committed by these so-called civilized countries against Africa and other Third World Countries. The First and the Second World War, though it is not a world war in the true sense of the word, had happened in the civilized Europe. It is become common to accuse a certain ideology in order to cover ones` own agenda. <br /><br />Though ideology has a certain role in shaping the human mind, those persons who became acquaintance with the socialist ideology at the age of twenty or more had a different historical background which is fixed in their minds. In this case I do not blame Marxism for the political vandalism and murderous act that the student movement had inflicted and the Military government including the present have done against our beloved country. I maintain that the cultural context in which we are brought up, that is the rigid feudal attitude is responsible for our inflexible and inhuman attitude. With this the education system, with which we are brought up makes us anti-nationalistic and subversive. Regardless of what the leaders of the student movement wrote on their banners, in essence they have created a situation for anti-Ethiopian sentiments. What matters is not the intention in this case. The bloody war which was committed in the name of the revolution bothers many people. The deaths of their children and relatives have wiped all the joys form their minds and they are condemned to live in permanent sadness. On the other side all ethnic based so-called freedom fighters had one thing in their minds. If we take all the organisations which rose arms in the name of freedom their intention was and is to dismantle Ethiopia. Undoubtedly they became victims of foreign forces, and were mislead to destroy their own people. They are at the same time the victims of their unconscious act. They could not pose questions, or try to behave like normal people to check their thinking and handling. As Freud said they are driven by their irrational motives to take power and install their own dreams. All what is identified as Amhara culture is associated with Ethiopia. Ethiopia as an “Empire state” must be vanished from the map of the world. Though culture and the formation of nation-sates are like biological processes, these so-called freedom fighters could not understand why the supposed Amhara culture had its beginning in the north and could spread southwards. All nations and cultures had taken more or less the same path. When we study and understand the formation of states, we can understand the necessity of building a nation-state. <br /><br />What makes our country unique is the incomplete nation-state building and the unconscious role of our rulers and the special circumstances that our country has been experiencing over the last thousand years. All these factors including the so-called modern education system are responsible for misguided thinking and handling. In this case our consciousness and our love for our country cannot be seen isolated from the entire socialization process within which we are brought up. The question arises: How can we turn these bad circumstances in which we are finding ourselves, and can behave normally and play a positive role to build a democratic and strong Ethiopia. When certain groups still believe that Ethiopia in general has been ruled over the last thousand or so years by Amharas and Tigrians, how could we convince them that this was not the case and that the situation must be studied thoroughly through a different prism. The issue of ethnic nationalism is not the problem of the masses. It is an elite problem, which cannot understand its own role, and is being languished by an inferiority complex. The Ethiopian masses in general do not have any problem in identifying themselves with their culture and country. The masses are ready to learn new things and change themselves, whereas the elites of different nationalities are not ready to do so. <br /><br />The Issue of Nation-State <br /><br />The concept of nation-state is a historical concept and it must be seen as a biological process. In Europe, where the nation-state formation has taken more or less a unique path it is not problematic for the people of Europe to identify themselves with their own nation. In countries like Ethiopia, where some think that the formation of the Ethiopian nation is abnormal and not a historical necessity, it is very difficult to make them understand that all countries have passed difficult roads to come to the situation that we witness today.<br /><br />By historical chance, some groups or nationalities develop some kinds of division of labour. They develop a language and by that a culture. The development of a certain culture, division of labour, and written languages are sometimes accidental, because some groups may have contacts at earlier time with the outside world. These kinds of cultural developments cannot and will not remain fixed in one area. Through trade relationships and through various kinds of movements, because human beings are mobile, there come contacts with other communities. The expansion and intermingling of culture and language will become a historical necessity. Since all groups could not develop equally, because of social and cultural uniqueness of the various groups, the developed culture will be taken by other groups. In this way all cultures across the glob could develop and march towards the formation of any kind of state system. The development of state, social structure and nation-state are a historical necessity. Since human beings are condemned by nature to live within a community and are compelled to form any kind of social organization, individual self-realization can only be achieved within a given community. For various reasons, like lack of cultural and historical consciousness, the group that holds political power cannot bring the necessary development. In this case, and due to external manipulation and pressure, certain countries could not develop into an accomplished nation-state. The case of our country is a vivid example, why especially the elites of various nationalities do not feel that they are belonging to Ethiopia. They think like this because they misread history and they overstate the consciousness of the political elite that had shaped the history of Ethiopia over the last 800 years. <br /><br />The Ethiopian feudal system was a unique social structure that did not allow the development of division of labour. Handicraft activities and trading were seen as activities which could only be carried out by inferior groups. The taste and the limited need of the ruling feudal elite could not pave the way for the development of various kinds of commodities. Manufacturing activities were not known. In areas where it was not possible to develop a division of labour based on manufacture activities, it was not possible to develop cities. The absence of a generalised division of labour blocked social mobility. As the people remained confined to their areas, the development of language and culture on a higher scale was practically impossible. Accordingly they could not become creative, and transform their lives. Added to these Ethiopia did not have trade and cultural relationships with the outside world. All these circumstances and the rigid nature of the political system could arrest the entire society. As a consequence poverty, hunger and mass dislocation became the stigma of the society. The ruling classes could not see beyond their own circumstances. Though there were attempts by certain rulers to modernize the system, some had resisted because they felt that their status will be diminished. The transformation and modernization of the Ethiopian society must be postponed. <br /><br />One could observe that starting in the 14th century there were attempts to expand the imperial systems to various regions without modernizing the economic foundation. From the 17th century onwards the struggle became fiercer and nation-state formation became inevitable. With Atse Yohannis, Atse Tewodros and Emperor Menilik II, the crystallization of the system became clearer and Ethiopia was marching towards a kind of nation-state. Atse Tewodros and Emperor Menelik II had clearly understood that without changing the social system and without modernization it was not possible to build an imperial system. Menelik II had laid the real foundation to build Ethiopia as a nation-state. But due to various historical circumstances and because of the changing international politics, it was not possible for him to go further. There were no social forces which could develop his idea and accomplish his mission. Ethiopia did not have any middle class and intellectual force which could grasp the idea of Menelik II and put it into practice. There were no well established social structures in other areas on which one could expand the system of nation-state building. It is therefore unwise to accuse our leaders for what had happened during the middle and late middle ages. We have to understand the nature of social history through the prism of nation-state formation in Europe. <br /><br />One could admit today that Emperor Haile Selassie did not understand his role as a ruler. Nor did the bureaucracy understand its role. First of all Emperor Haile Selassie had re-installed feudalism and the feudal structure after the defeat of the Italian fascism. Secondly, he let the British steal which the Italians had built over 60 years. The British imperialists had stolen all the infrastructure and industries that the Italians built within a couple of years. Because Emperor Haile Selassie was only interested in his power, he could not understand what steps he should take to build a coherent nation-state on the basis of science and technology. His alignment with America and other western powers did not help him to build a strong and developed Ethiopia. The monetisation of the economy could not pave the way for the development of capitalism. The economy becomes peripheral and subsistence in general. The social structure was contradictory and there was no social cohesion among the various groups and nationalities. There was no cultural development which makes the people creative and innovative. Such a contradictory system gave room for unconscious elements to put their evil dreams into practice. The student movement was born out of this contradictory situation not to challenge the nation-state concept but to build a modern and egalitarian Ethiopia with the help of the ideology of Marxism-Leninism. I do no want to dwell on what went wrong with the student movement. Only professional historians and critical researches could answer this part. I want to affirm that the student movement in general is not anti-Ethiopian. Its an uncritical approach to social history and misreading of the Ethiopian history and its meagre understanding of human psychology compelled it to solve the problem by means of arms. This is the greatest crime that the student movement had inflicted upon our society. The past is past. We do not have time to lament on things what happened in the past. Our historical role is to study the Ethiopian social system through a different prism and struggle for a nation-state based on science and technology. Our mission is not to be caught with revenge and accuse against each other. Our main agenda must be to struggle for a nation-state where science and technology flourish and our people live in peace and prosperity. For that we must have a clear understanding of economic mechanisms which help us to shape Ethiopia as a modern and dynamic social structure. <br /><br /> The Issue of Economic Development <br /><br />As we misread nation-state and the necessity of nation-state we also have problems in understanding the meaning of genuine economic development. This is because we all are trained within the neo-classical paradigm which reduces everything to scarce resources and satisfaction of human needs. As far as I know nobody has tried to attach the problem of economic development with nation-state formation. If we do we completely misunderstand the meaning of economic development, and detach it from nation-state formation and building a genuine social order. In our concepts economic development becomes equivalent to market economy. Not only we Ethiopians have problems in understanding the nature of genuine economic development. The elite of many Third World countries have problems in understanding the true meaning of a genuine economic development. In the time of globalisation, the problem is multiple, economic development is seen dissociated from true human civilization. Globalization is a great challenge for many developing countries, and millions of people are thrown to slave like labour to satisfy the global capitalist system. Third World countries, especially African countries are hindered to see beyond the conventional wisdom of market economy. They are not allowed to formulate an inward looking strategy which enables them to mobilize all the available resources in order to build a coherent and a chained economic structure. <br /><br />Without having a developed economic structure based on science and technology the concept of nation-state is inconceivable. The true foundation of a nation-state and a well functioning social system is to develop a science and technology based economic system. Only through science and technology could any country become dynamic and will be integrated from within. Only with a developed economic and social infrastructure any nation can be respected. The development of culture on the basis of science is only possible when there is an effort of creating a science and technology driven economic development. True individual freedom can be achieved only through science and technology. People of a given nation will get mental power when they are able to understand the meaning of science and technology. The development of well structured cities and villages is the prerequisite of an integrated home market. In short, without science and technology there is no social transformation. Those countries which still rely on the production of agricultural products and mineral resources will never see the true meaning of civilization. They will remain the victim of their own leaders and foreign forces. <br /><br />Until now the struggle on a world wide scale is to get supremacy on all fields. Only few countries have taken for granted that they have a monopoly on science and technology while the rest of humanity remains as supplier of raw materials. School books are deliberately written, and teachers are masterminded to spread such kinds of propaganda. The international division of labour and trade system become the foundation of this misconceived ideology, and this becomes equal to science. Science becomes synonymous with exploitation, and enslaving the labour of Third World countries. Unfortunately we are condemned to think in this category. Those who think differently and fight for a science and technology driven economy are seen as abnormal and their approaches is taken as an unscientific. I think we have to reverse this ideology of brainwashing and must unmask the true mission of neo-liberalism. In my capacity I have tried to clarify some of the misconceived ideas in my recent article, in “The Great Confusion”. For further and elaborative clarification, the works of Professor Erik Reinhardt and Prof. Gunnar Myrdal are very interesting and should be studied. <br /><br />It is important to understand the market economic philosophy of the IMF and the World Bank if we want to bring a science and technology driven social transformation in our society. Experiences in many countries have taught us that the IMF and the World Bank policies do not bring the necessary transformation what we need. The Chinese have clearly demonstrated that without the intervention of the IMF and the World Bank experts they could build a strong economy within three decades. Since the Chinese have the will to develop they could mobilise all the resources that they have at their disposal. Especially a country like Ethiopia, which becomes the victim of international finance oligarchy headed by the IMF and the World Bank, needs genuine transformation based on a holistic approach. As I have tried to analyse in my work, only a conscious economic policy based on philosophy and sociology can help Ethiopia to bring some kind of economic dynamism. With this, as Gunnar Myrdal clearly demonstrates, institutional reform is needed if we want to achieve a dynamic economic structure. <br /><br />The present Ethiopian government which has sold its soul for the international financial oligarchy has thrown our country into an economic system which is mere service oriented. According to the philosophy of the regime, only trading activities and export of unprocessed agricultural products must be the basis of economic development. Ethiopia must not build a strong home market on the basis of science and technology. The economic policy of the Meles regime is a policy of quick acquisition of money. It is not based on a long term strategy to bring real development through technological development in all areas. The “strategic” part of the economy is being controlled by the ruling class, and the system hinders the development of capitalism. It seems that the government works in the service of foreign forces so that no genuine economic development takes place. Fertile land is allocated for flower plantation and crops which could serve to extract diesel. Peasants are deliberately compelled to divert their attention to crop farming and flower plantation for the world market. On the other hand the government imports dehydrated cereal products from the European community and America. Instead of building an internal market, by creating linkages in all areas the government deliberately destroys the production capacity of the society. Over the last 20 years the country has produced an omnivorous class which absorbs the wealth of the society and lavishly spends the money in bars. This unique and uncultured class becomes a kind of bridge for the infiltration of bad culture from abroad. With its arrogant behaviour and spreading of bad habit it destroys the mentality of the youth. The system becomes out of control. <br /><br />More or less the situation seems like this, and the Ethiopian people are frustrated by the vulgar nature of the system. They are longing for a system which transforms their lives and make them self-reliant. It is our duty to show the road to true civilization. In this case we have to challenge the neo-liberal economic paradigm which is presented as the only panacea of solving economic and social problems. Over the last 30 years many African countries have been practicing the so-called structural adjustment program of the IMF and the World Bank. None of them could build a dynamic and free economic structure. All countries that have applied this program could not transform the lives of their people. I think this must be a lesson to us. The history of nation building proves that poverty, hunger and underdevelopment cannot be eradicated by market economic instruments, but only through conscious state economic policy. We can eradicate poverty and hunger if we accept this fact and open our mind to new ideas. The experiences of Western Europe after the Second World War, the great efforts of Japan and South Korea are good examples which help us to draw lessons. All these countries could build strong economies not by applying a pure market economic policy but through the combined activities of state intervention and private initiative. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Thank you for your understanding <br /><br />Fekadu Bekele, April 9, 2010EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-35538579451570334262010-03-16T01:11:00.002-07:002010-03-16T01:17:13.951-07:00Ethiopian Banker Leads Development Agency for Obama Administration<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_EwLtB47xtdM/S58-MYwwy_I/AAAAAAAAAbY/TGQ7CK9T3DM/s1600-h/MMC-400-Yohannes1.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 214px; height: 320px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_EwLtB47xtdM/S58-MYwwy_I/AAAAAAAAAbY/TGQ7CK9T3DM/s320/MMC-400-Yohannes1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5449142456667917298" /></a><br />As chief of the Millennium Challenge Corporation, Daniel Yohannes, is the highest ranking Ethiopian American in Obama's government.<br /><br />An Ethiopian immigrant is making history as the highest Ethiopian-American official in the Obama administration. Daniel Yohannes was born in the Ethiopian capital. He completed his elementary school at Addis Ababa’s Nativity Boy’s School and later transferred to St. Joseph’s, a prestigious Catholic high school in Addis Ababa. “In those days people of my generation were idealistic, full of energy, with a lot of love for each other, as well as love and respect for our parents, elders, and teachers,” Yohannes says Yohannes tells about some of the successes. Ghana, he points out, is making commercial agriculture more profitable and reduce the cost of transporting food from rural areas to markets. In Lesotho, the MCC is helping the children of HIV-positive mothers live long and healthy lives by renovating health care centers and establishing clinics to distribute anti-retroviral medicines. And in Burkina Faso, 400 classrooms have been built exclusively for girls.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-37778020055784954462009-11-09T01:49:00.001-08:002009-11-09T01:54:41.097-08:00What the recent bilateral talks tell us about U.S.-Ethiopia relationsAnnette C. Sheckler 11/06/09<br /><br /> A great deal has been written predicting a shift in the United States’ relationship with Ethiopia under the new Obama Administration. After yesterday’s bilateral talks between Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, these dire predictions can finally be put to rest. It is clear that Ethiopia and the United States share fundamental values and interests in democratization, economic growth and development, and the security and military matters that affect not only the region but the security interests of the United States as well.<br />Democracy, as Americans understand it, is a core American value and most agree that democracy-building should be a core value of U.S. foreign policy. However, there is a great deal of debate today, particularly within the Democratic Party, as to, tactically, how the U.S. should pursue this foreign policy goal. While there is general agreement within the Democratic Party to repudiate the blunt force of the Bush Administration’s democracy-promotion (especially through regime-change), there are differences between those who favor a more traditional, quiet diplomacy and those who question whether American democracy can—or should—be exported abroad. <br />What seems clear in this debate is a recognition and acknowledgement of the context of democracy-promotion, which ideally, will shape and drive a foreign policy agenda with more substance than form. In the words of President Obama, he said that he wanted to promote democracy abroad “through a lens that is actually delivering a better life for people on the ground and less obsessed with form, more concerned with substance.”<br />And this is where the Ethiopian government and the Obama Administration appear to be in agreement in terms of democracy-promotion. No one can reasonably argue against the challenges of advancing democracy in a country with a legacy of bad governance, crippling poverty, a fractious political culture and hostile neighbors, just to name a few of the major challenges. All in all, Ethiopia lives in a bad neighborhood that will get worse before it gets better. In the meantime, the Government of Ethiopia is actually, quoting President Obama, “delivering a better life for people on the ground and less obsessed with form, more concerned with substance.” <br />What is also clear is the agreement between Ethiopia and the United States concerning “good aid” and “bad aid.” “Bad aid” perpetuates dependence, erodes institutions and can increase rent-seeking and corruption. “Good aid” is a long-term investment in breaking the cycle of dependence, building institutions and lays the groundwork for sustainable growth. Initiatives such as the U.S. Global Hunger and Food Security Initiative that address agricultural production share the core economic principles laid out in the Ethiopian Government’s Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization.<br />Finally, the United States and Ethiopia see what is real in the Horn of Africa as opposed to what we want it to be. Somalia is a failed state. Eritrea is a failed state. Al Shabab is a threat not only to the Horn of Africa but to the United States as well. Eritrea provides major support to al Shabab. These are facts. The close military and security cooperation between Ethiopia and the United States is crucial to Ethiopia, to the region, to the continent, to the United States and to the global community.<br />Does this mean that there will not be disagreements between Ethiopia and the United States? Of course not—both are sovereign states with national interests that may, at times, diverge. <br />The bottom line, however, is clarity about the U.S. Government’s views towards Ethiopia under the new Administration. Let us congratulate both delegations on a job well done.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com69tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-89032325861126883742009-11-06T22:36:00.000-08:002009-11-06T22:38:05.688-08:0033 Days to Copenhagen — Progress, Stalemate, and a Game-Changer?By Jan von der Goltz <br /><br />As negotiators gather in Barcelona for a final round of preparatory talks for the Copenhagen meeting and as Germany’s “Climate Chancellor” Angela Merkel (the rare world leader with a PhD in quantum chemistry) addresses a joint session of Congress, there is no mistaking the fact that time to Copenhagen is running out fast. This blog reviews recent good news on the negotiations, acknowledges the road blocks that have rightly galvanized attention, and asks whether there is a possibility for a change in dynamics.<br /><br />Progress…<br /><br />Indonesia deserves praise for its bold plan to cut emissions by 26 percent below business as usual (BAU) by 2020 without international support, and by 41 percent with support. The goal is ambitious, but Indonesia’s National Action Plan is a good starting point, and a study by McKinsey has already pinpointed opportunities for reducing emissions by more than one-third below BAU.<br /><br />More good news may be in the making, as India prepares to unveil “a domestic cap-and-trade programme, [where] the cap will be on energy intensity, not carbon.” Similarly, President Hu of China reaped kudos for his pledge to reduce emissions intensity by a “notable margin” by 2020. Some worry that the goal, to be specified during the bargaining process, may come to be about 20 percent intensity reduction, not quite enough to chart a path to stabilization. Yet, the International Energy Agency sees China reducing its energy emissions by 12.5 percent below BAU by 2020 with a portfolio of actions already under discussion, and the WWF’s Beijing climate chief Yang Fuqiang told a German newspaper that such actions might even imply a 17–22 percent reduction below 2005 levels. This puts China in the neighborhood of the 15–30 percent decrease necessary to avoid warming more than two degrees Celsius. China, India, and other major developing-country emitters have also made a real concession toward enhancing emissions monitoring.<br />The EU has at last opened the discussion on funding and proposed making €50 billion ($74 billion) per year available in public funds to developing countries by 2020, with an immediate €5¬7 billion in “fast-start” funds. While Europe was immediately chastised for failing to nail down its own contribution, it has at least begun discussing allocation formulas that would have it contribute about half of the total sum.<br /><br />Finally, in the United States, the joint initiative of Senators Graham (R-SC) and Kerry (D-MA) appears to promise progress on climate legislation. The Obama administration has also made some headway, arguing that weak action would hamstring the country in the race for leadership on clean technology.<br /><br />… and stalemate<br /><br />At the same time, agreement remains elusive on the core questions of burden sharing: funding and the allocation of emission cuts.<br /><br />The United States’ refrain remains that there can be no agreement without commitments by major developing-country emitters, and that it can only join a ‘bottom-up’ scheme in which all countries specify domestic initiatives without generating international treaty obligations.<br /><br />U.S. insistence on (and EU support for) this approach has profoundly dismayed developing countries. At the same time, the United States urges understanding for the obstacles its own legislation faces in Congress, especially given the current preoccupation with health-care legislation.<br /><br />But international sympathy has been limited. Observers have been quick to point out, for instance, that Senators Baucus’ (D-MT) concern that “[his home state Montana] cannot afford the unmitigated effects of [the Kerry-Boxer] climate change legislation” sits awkwardly with the Environmental Protection Agency’s estimate that the bill would cost U.S. households all of $100 per year. And besides, competing priorities of great human importance are seen to be the rule, not the exception.<br /><br />Many, however, agree that the world would stand little to gain if the Obama administration were to ignore Congress’s misgivings. As India’s Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh has pointed out,<br /><br />“The US is making small steps [on climate change]. Remember, without the US there will be no international agreement. So there is no point in hectoring or beating up on them like the Europeans seem to be doing.”<br /><br />Yet, with action in Congress before Copenhagen unlikely, and developing countries yet unwilling to agree to the bottom-up approach, all but every global leader has been busy lowering expectations for Copenhagen. The emerging consensus was articulated by Ramesh, who called on his colleagues to “clinch those elements of the deal that we can clinch. … Then we can come back to Copenhagen in the summer of 2010 to clinch the larger agreement.”<br /><br />Is there scope for a game-changer?<br /><br />The prize question of the negotiations has long been whether the Obama administration has an ace up its sleeve and can put something new on the negotiating table. Yet, the administration seems to have determined that it must go with whatever Congress legislates and that it must clinch an agreement that does not require a (67-vote) treaty majority in Congress. Beyond this, it tries to leverage its limited flexibility—chiefly in technology cooperation—through bilateral negotiations.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the EU and Japan have already staked out progressive positions and have little more leverage (short of imposing trade sanctions, as France and Germany have threatened). This really leaves only one potential game-changer, a yet bolder commitment from China or India.<br /><br />In this respect, the most intriguing recent development was the debate in India following the leak of a memo from Environment Minister Ramesh to the Prime Minister. Ramesh suggested that India adjust its tough negotiating stance in its own national interest. He proposed that India ease off its opposition to the bottom-up framework (while retaining differences in the type of action different countries take), propose its own actions without guarantee of funding from developed countries, and permit external verification. This, he argued, would both help limit climate impacts on India’s vulnerable economy and enhance India’s international reputation (India has been increasingly portrayed as a less helpful player than China, despite its much lower emissions).<br /><br />The proposal was met with acerbic commentary from parts of the Indian media and commentators like the Centre for Science and Environment’s Sunita Narain With little backup from his own party, Ramesh was attacked from the left and the right, with the Hindu nationalist BJP’s general secretary calling the proposal “[the governing coalition’s] Diwali gift to the United States and other developed countries at the cost of India’s poor.”<br /><br />The future of India’s stance is unclear. Both Ramesh and the Prime Minister have since re-stated India’s original position. Yet, Singh also has taken steps to build domestic consensus on moving to a revised stance.<br /><br />A bold move of the type advocated by Ramesh remains the most obvious contingency that could change the negotiating dynamics. Some suggest that such decisive action would come in exchange for influence in the IFIs or the Security Council. Whether there is such an explicit quid pro quo or not, what seems clear is that some developing countries are weighing the possibility of doing more on climate than they are ethically obliged to do. There are real costs to such a stance, and it is for developing countries alone to decide whether it is worth considering. Yet, the moment clearly holds a rare opportunity for conspicuous leadership of the kind that re-makes international systems.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-71951609461033866832009-10-31T07:46:00.000-07:002009-10-31T07:48:40.445-07:00Bravo AEUP, CUD, EDP and EPRDF for a Historic Leap into a well-ordered Democratic SocietyAdal Isaw<br /><br />adalisaw@yahoo.com<br /><br />October 30, 2009<br /><br /> <br /><br />Although the many questions that pertain to a democratic life may be universal, some leaders and thinkers have explored the same questions in a unique, powerful and timely fashion. Such leaders and thinkers have served as benchmarks—for those of us who’re faced with similar inquiries to the same set of the many questions that a democratic life poses. The questions faced by the leaders of AEUP, CUD, EDP and EPRDF might have not been uniquely attributed to them, but their recent civil engagement for a needed political action to produce a lifesaving national document is unique, powerful and timely. <br /><br /> <br /><br />These Ethiopian leaders have explored and produced a desperately needed national document, at a time when Ethiopia is at a crossroad bombarded by many years of abject poverty and detractors that work overtime to cease its existence. Ethiopia has won and those with other plans in their political playbook are served with another tacitly conveyed binding national document; the time for actions and reactions prone to violent and backward public discourse is over. It should further be noted, by producing a document for the peaceful democratization of Ethiopia, these leaders of AEUP, CUD, EDP and EPRDF have become the needed benchmarks for all future pallbearer young generation of Ethiopians. <br /><br /> <br /><br /> It’s now incumbent up on us Ethiopians, to contrast and compare the fruitful and exemplary political engagement of AEUP, CUD, EDP and EPRDF with those for whom the historic national document is waiting to be signed on time—before the 2010 Ethiopian Parliamentary Election. More than anything else, it’s now the responsibility of peace and democracy loving Ethiopian Diaspora— to come to terms and see this national document for what it is. It should not expect for gimmicks to bubble or for a theory of conspiracy to flourish; period. <br /><br /> <br /><br />The arduous collective work to propagate for the peaceful democratization of our beloved country has begun. And it is up to the Ethiopian Diaspora—to either make it its duty to propagate the peaceful democratization of Ethiopia or, to go on tangent and openly stay hostile to a lifesaving national document that no civil and democratic nation and institution will say no to. Ethiopia has won big; because, the mere intent in this binding document disarms the few hostile voices of democracy and democratization in Ethiopia—without a single shot to the air. <br /><br />These Ethiopian leaders have disarmed the naysayers with plain and simple words of democracy and peace, thereby lowering the threat level that might have existed otherwise endangering the livelihood of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. Thus, the binding national agreement in and itself has become a historic leap of political action—to civilly pave the boulevard to reasoned political dialogue which is essential to well-ordered society. <br /><br /> <br /><br /> The political cooperation between these disparate Ethiopian political parties should continue and continue for one very simple reason; the work they can do together to better Ethiopia and Ethiopians is infinitely greater than the interest they garner by paying homage to their political and ideological convictions. It is the interest of Ethiopia that brought these otherwise disparate political parties to work together in the first place, and, this same interest should make them come together time again, whenever our country is faced with problems that need a united Ethiopian effort to answer. <br /><br /> <br /><br />You see; unlike physical science problems which, when answered are answered once and for all, political problems of the kind we have in our beloved country, manifest a unique open-ended quality. Each “answer” to a given political problem entails a new set of problems, and as a result, the duty of creating a decent and humane political order is never done with. With this in mind, this type of exemplary political work should continue to enable Ethiopia tackle the bigger and harsher impending and imminent problems with a united fist.<br /><br /> <br /><br /> The unison shown by these Ethiopian leaders of different parties to sign the binding code of conduct has propelled Ethiopia one less a threat away to democratization. But more than anything, while it has given Ethiopians the needed sigh of relief from fear of the unknown, it has unambiguously broken the remaining political backbone of the violent prone self-exiled-opposition into unsalvageable pieces. Those who were eager to see nothing but disorder and blood have been served a notice that no matter how contentious their political thoughts are, nothing will deter AEUP, CUD, EDP and EPRDF from working together to democratize Ethiopia peacefully. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Ethiopia’s endurance is paying!!!<br /><br />Bravo AEUP, CUD, EDP and EPRDFEYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-40660639354187809022009-10-31T07:17:00.000-07:002009-10-31T07:19:29.622-07:00On the Upcoming National Elections [2010] and Beyond:By Tesfaye Habisso <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> “ The key element in the exercise of democracy is <br /><br /> the holding of free and fair elections at regular <br /><br /> intervals enabling the people’s will to be expressed.” <br /><br /> [Universal Declaration on Democracy, IPU Members <br /><br /> in 1997] <br /><br /> <br /><br /> Ethiopia’s brief experiment in democracy and its attempt at installing good/ democratic governance in a multiethnic, multicultural and multilingual society of ours since the last 18 years or so, I am afraid, has not yet been as successful when compared to its noteworthy achievements in the areas of transport infrastructure development, economic growth (GDP), and the provision of social services (condos for the urban poor; potable water, health clinics, schools, roads, etc for the rural peasants). Based on vast available literature on the subject of democracy, one can discover that the domination of the political system by one party [EPRDF since 1991], the multiethnic, multicultural and multi-religious makeup of the society, the prevalence of an ethnically dominated party system, abject poverty, and the difficulty of adopting democratic values, rules and procedures as well as a culture of tolerance among political elites that have inherited a legacy of political power changing hands through the barrel of the gun and not via peaceful, competitive and free, fair and credible elections, etc. are some of the major factors that can be mentioned as major impediments to our democratisation efforts and struggles yesterday, today and in the years to come. Owing to these factors, the pace and progress of the democratisation process and the successful transition to and consolidation of democracy in our country has so far been full of fits and starts, the periodic elections often marred by violence and public disorder resulting in accusations and counter accusations of vote rigging and fraud by the losers in the periodic elections, often targeting the ruling party and government. Thus, the procedural quality of electoral democracy surrounding the conduct of regular free, fair and credible elections, the respect for political rights, such as the right to vote, to form political parties and to compete in elections, the respect for civil liberties, such as the freedom of expression and association, and the extent to which the government is accountable, responsive, transparent and respectful of the rule of law still leaves a lot to be desired. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Many scholars forcefully argue that the ongoing democratisation process cannot succeed and a democratic political system cannot become consolidated unless the principal political elites in the society agree upon the rules of the game of that system and are willing to abide by those rules. The basic rules of a democratic system are to allow for full and unhindered contestation and participation. Elite support for democracy is often the product of agreements between all or some key political parties and leaders. A comprehensive elite settlement takes place if all the paramount political groups in the society participate in the agreement. A comprehensive settlement will most likely provide for full political contestation since the principal political groups will be able to contest power in the resultant political regime. Such elite agreements have two important consequences: they create patterns of open but peaceful competition among all major elite factions and they transform unstable political regimes into stable regimes, in which forcible power seizing no longer occur and are not widely expected. In essence, an elite settlement transforms disunified elites into “consensually unified elites”. Consensually unified elites “operate stable, politically representative regimes,” where “government positions pass peacefully among different persons and factions”, usually through “periodic, competitive, and binding elections”.[Burton and Higley, “Elite Settlements”, American Sociological Review 52, June 1987, p. 297]. A regime transition that results in a long lasting democracy is likely to be the product of an elite settlement, while a regime transition that leads to a failed democracy is likely to be devoid of a settlement. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Be this as it may, the process of becoming a democracy is most often fraught with more problems and challenges than is usually acknowledged. According to Donald L. Horowitz, “…democracy is exceptional in severely divided societies, and the claim has repeatedly been advanced that democracy cannot survive in the face of serious ethnic divisions. At least since John Stuart Mill pronounced in Representative Government that democracy is “next to impossible in a country made up of different nationalities”, a respectable body of opinion has subscribed to such views.” [Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, University of California Press, 1985, p. 681]. In a similar vein, Francis Fukuyama, in his book, “The End of History and the Last Man” states: “…democracy is not likely to emerge in a country where the nationalism or ethnicity of its constituent groups is so highly developed that they do not share a sense of nation or accept one another’s rights. A strong sense of national unity is therefore necessary prior to the emergence of stable democracy, just as it preceded the emergence of democracy in countries such as Britain, the United States, France, Italy and Germany. The absence of such a sense of unity in the Soviet Union was one of the reasons why stable democracy could not emerge prior to that country’s break-up into smaller national units.” [Ibid, The Free Press, New York, 1992, p. 216] Political experience has unambiguously shown that in poor multiethnic or plural/heterogeneous societies, for instance, transitions to democracy have proved to be mostly rocky and violent, and this often gives rise to warlike nationalism and violent ethnic conflicts. In such societies a peaceful transition to democracy is exceptional, and the certainty that democracy will prevail is in question. Democratic movement in the first place was born out of a unique set of conditions prevalent in the Western world. Some of the ingredients necessary for the evolutionary birth of a democratic order are believed to be: (1) industrialization; (2) rise in literacy levels; (3) abundance of resources; (4) isolation from negative outside influences and (5) political theoreticians whose vision spans the past, present and future and who have a grasp of the physical disciplines required in that particular age [http://www.hujra.com/democracy_not_work.hym] <br /><br /> <br /><br />For many scholars, democracy is a delicate flower that requires a host of social and institutional prerequisites. One scholar suggests that democracy requires a populace endowed with nine psychological traits, among which are tolerance, realism, flexibility, and objectivity, and further, that the country must have economic well-being, economic equality and an educated citizenry [Carl Cohen, Democracy, Athens: University of Georgia Press, 1971]. Another political scientist names seven conditions necessary for democracy, including a “strong concern for the mass of people” and “high social mobility” [Alfred De Grazia, The Elements of Political Science, New York: Alfred Knopf, 1952, pp. 546-547]. Robert Dahl describes three essential conditions for a multiparty democracy to function; these are: (1) extensive competition by contestants including individuals, groups or parties for government; (2) political participation that provides the choice for the electorate to select candidates in free and fair elections; and (3) civil and political liberties that enable citizens to express themselves without fear of punishment [Robert Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989, p. 221]. In his evaluation of the “third wave of democratisation” of the seventies and eighties, the American political scientist Samuel P. Huntington concludes that states become particularly susceptible to democratisation when they have reached a certain minimal level of social and economic development [Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Norman, 1991, p. 59ff]. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Most often democracy has come to be equated with mere superficial and easily recognizable mechanical processes, the most recognized of which being regular elections. Elections are indeed a necessary but by no means a sufficient condition for the completion of a democratic transition. The mere casting of a vote does not make a democracy even when the elections are indeed free and fair [Silindiwe Sibanda, Poverty and Democratic Participation: A Pyramidal Construct of Democratic Needs, The Center for Advanced Studies of African Society, Cape Town, South Africa: http://www.dpmf.org/poverty-silindiwe.html]. It is believed that a country has completed the transition to democracy when “the government resulting from election…has the de jure as well as the de facto power to determine policy in many significant areas.” [Linz and Stepan, “Toward Consolidated Democracies”, pp. 14-33]. Whatever the case, a democratic transition is a long and difficult process that may take many decades to complete. Even if the country has transitioned to a democratic political system, the journey towards stable democracy is not secure and completed. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Then, at what moment does a successfully democratising state become a mature democracy? When can its democracy be termed consolidated? Some scholars use the “two turnover rule” to define “democratic consolidation”, that is a democracy is considered consolidated when power has changed hands twice as a result of free and fair elections. Others say that democracy is considered consolidated when it is “the only game in town”, that is when no significant political party or group seeks to come to power by means other than winning a free and fair election. Others measure the degree to which the country has achieved the institutional and legal characteristics of a mature democracy, using indicators such as competitive politics, regular elections, broad participation, constraints on arbitrary use of executive power, free speech, and respect for civil liberties, including minority rights. Once a country has completed a democratic transition, it is left for that democracy to be consolidated, a necessary condition for a lasting democratic regime. <br /><br /> <br /><br /> According to Linz and Stepan, a “consolidated” democracy is a “political regime in which democracy as a complex system of institutions, rules, and patterned incentives and disincentives has become, in a phrase, the only game in town.” Haggard and Kaufman state, “a democratic consolidation is a process through which acceptance of a given set of constitutional rules becomes less directly contingent on immediate rewards and sanctions and increasingly widespread and routinized. Consolidation is essentially a more important process than transition. A government may be able to transition to democracy, but if it does not consolidate said democracy, it may relapse into authoritarianism or other non-democratic forms of government. Additional factors must be in place if a democracy is to be considered “consolidated”. First, the conditions must exist for the development of a free and lively civil society. Second, there must be a relatively autonomous political society. Third, throughout the territory of the state all major political actors, especially the government and the state apparatus, must be effectively subjected to a rule of law that protects individual freedoms and associational life. Fourth, there must be a state bureaucracy that is usable by the new democratic government. Fifth, there must be an institutionalised economic society [Haggard and Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995, p. 15]. <br /><br /> <br /><br /> Today, as we talk of the upcoming fourth national elections in 2010, I think the aforementioned challenges should be taken into account when re-examining and re-assessing our heretofore efforts to realize a functioning and stable democracy in Ethiopia. Furthermore, a few salient points regarding democratic elections must be raised and discussed/debated now in order to avoid the re-occurrence of some of the ugly and dreadful features that we witnessed in the electioneering exercise during the past decade or so in our newly democratising country, more so in the aftermath of the 2005 national elections. In our case, we can boldly assert that we have not yet moved far enough from the politics of confrontation, acrimony and hostility that has bedevilled the national political arena for a long time, reminiscent of the politics of the Ethiopian students movements of the 1960s and 1970s. It is believed that Ethiopia could build upon its manifest potential and significantly transform its democratisation and developmental prospects if its principal political parties were to pursue a more constructive and responsible approach to politics. The prevailing political stalemate, it can be argued, does not derive from any fundamental divergence amongst the major political parties but remains associated with the increasingly confrontational style and language of their politics. The prevailing political divisions, often of an incendiary nature, have their roots in the country’s troubled political history and the heterogeneous nature of the nation’s ethnic makeup (comprised of over 83 ethnic groups, “nations, nationalities and peoples” as the FDRE Constitution defines them). The divisive potential of such differences should not be underestimated but they do not impinge upon the contemporary debates on development strategy, democracy and improved/democratic governance. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Therefore, the urgent task for the incumbent government and party is to create conducive conditions to promote mutual trust and confidence between political groups and organizations which are committed to peace and democracy, and interested to be parties to the political process. This can be done when political freedoms are not proscribed, political space open and conducive for all political parties, and when all of us show in words as well as in deeds that we are committed to respect the verdict of the people and that we are not in any way entitled to impose our will by force or pressure on the people. Belief in and commitment to the principle that the people are the ultimate arbiters of policy matters is fundamental in building trust and confidence. Where all political groups and organizations accept to be bound by the results of the ballet box, it is only natural to recognize their rights to articulate and propagate their programmes their own way, and thus the need for sufficiently permissive political space for all contestants of political office. And where this right is fully recognized and respected, there is no legal or material/moral justification for any group to resort to armed conflict or any confrontation. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Over the last decade or so, it cannot be denied that opposition political parties have not been given free reign to organize and operate, except perhaps during the 2005 national and regional elections campaign period only. Instead, these parties were confined to their headquarters, invariably located in Addis Ababa. This non-conducive political environment has to give way to an open, transparent and conducive political situation where political space can provide freedom to all opposition parties to organize and operate freely without infringing the freedom of others in the political arena. After all, politics, the activity of resolving a delimited set of matters that are public and common, takes place not in the imagination, nor merely in human minds, nor in any random place, but in spaces duly constituted for such as activity. Because its concerns are by definition public and common, its activity must take place in a public common place, and all opposition politicians committed to peaceful and constitutional competition must be provided this public space without any constraints. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Yes, democracy has its own rules. It can survive and flourish in our country only when all of us commit ourselves to play by the rules of the game: contestation and participation. It so happens that those who play by the rules of the game are those who not only understand its true meaning and substance but are also confident of themselves and their political objectives, and the political goal which gives one confidence is that which addresses itself to the true needs of the peoples of Ethiopia for democracy, peace and prosperity. After all, elections are peaceful competitions to serve the people and be ready to shoulder the immense challenges of extricating our peoples from the quagmire of abject poverty and under-development, helplessness and hopelessness, and surely not a struggle for self-enrichment and other selfish ends. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Yes, the 2010 national and regional legislative elections are fast approaching and the election season will soon overwhelm us. If we are not careful, soon legions of eager politicians representing different political parties, independent office seekers and their acolytes will be scurrying here and there engaging in all manners of conduct and for some of them, all manners of misconduct, in their energetic pursuit of office. People will soon be claiming that their opponent, whom heretofore we all thought was a relatively honourable person, now sits at the left hand of the Devil. But the real issue is, for what purpose is the party candidate running or being fielded and the independent candidate taking part in the election drama? Being in politics for the sake of politics is pitiably selfish. One should only engage in politics if she/he believes that she/he has the necessary education and capability and seeks to move to a more elevated and productive plane—that of democratic governance. And democratic governance implies dedicated, efficient and quality public service free from corruption and discrimination. A politician who is not capable of good/democratic governance is like getting into a new car that has no engine. While it looks good, it gets you nowhere. Thus, we should ask all potential politicians—party candidates as well as independent office seekers--, “Are you a politician because you have something to contribute or are you involved because you are looking for a secure employment or for something to take away for your own selfish ends and interests? Are you there because you like the sound of the title “Honourable MP” and because the sound of sirens has become an intoxicant to your ears? Or are you seeking office so that you can help our elderly folks get the necessary old-age care, help the adults and the youth find work to feed their families their daily bread and because you feel unequalled exhilaration when you see healthy, well fed children smile as they walk, books in hand, on their way to school?” Now that the election season is soon to overwhelm us, we all have a choice to make. Will our politics be small and selfish or will it be visionary, and will it be beneficial to those whom we purport to serve? <br /><br /> <br /><br />These are some of the vexing questions before us all, political parties and independent candidates. These questions are freighted with great importance. Thus, may we answer them with all the wisdom we can summon? Because Ethiopia is a recently minted democracy, our responsibility to hold fair, free and credible elections acceptable to all contestants in the nation’s political arena peacefully and bring good, democratic governance to our people is indeed acute. We may not face any greater collective responsibility for the remainder of our lives. In an older, well-established democracy, the relevant institutions and political culture have had time to root themselves in the social fabric of these societies. In such a situation, where the people err by electing bad leadership, the nation or community can endure because democracy has become a way of life. The dividends that have previously bestowed have built a reservoir of goodwill to see the people and this noble concept through the lean years. <br /><br /> <br /><br />When a democracy is young, as in our country, however substandard, flawed elections or a period of poor governance can give a mortal blow and wreak havoc to the democratic experiment. The ugly aftermath of the May 2005 national and regional parliamentary elections is a glaring example in this regard. The process of democratisation is not much different than the growth of a human being. Hardship an adult can endure may be fatal to an infant. We, as leaders of our State and communities, are the appointed guardians of a precious infant, Ethiopia’s democracy. Like any decent parent, we must place the survival and well being of that child above our own narrow interests. No decent parent feeds himself/herself until he/she can eat no more but let his/her child starve. <br /><br /> <br /><br />We as elected officials, we as government officials, we as community leaders and stalwarts, are among Ethiopian democracy’s founding fathers and mothers. Let us be as good parents to democracy as to the children of our own flesh, fibre and blood. Let us not let democracy be orphaned. When democracy is new, that is precisely when it must prove itself to the people, to the poor masses. If it does not produce noticeable fruits in the form of bread and butter—basic necessities of life such as shelter, clothing, food, healthcare, education, etc.-- and a modicum of safety, security, employment and freedom, the population, because it does not have a deep grounding in this form of government, may well decide the tree is barren and turn to something else that appears to have a more immediate yield. Cynicism, demagoguery, mistrust and selfishness creep in where faith and hope should reside. In such an atmosphere, democracy may be in jeopardy. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Here I will say something that at first seems to contradict what I have said before and that is, Ethiopia’s history indicates that it can survive for some time without democracy. In fact, democracy is the sole guarantee for Ethiopia to survive as one nation of many nations—a multi-nation federal state. However, history—and the large gulf that separates Ethiopia’s reality from its potential—is conclusive proof that a country cannot flourish in the long term without embracing political democracy and the economic empowerment of the individual and the group/community that democracy implies. This thing called democracy is a complex, and at times, an ungainly animal. From afar, it looks like an inefficient form of governance; but up close, it is the most practical one. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Under a dictatorship, it is easier to render and implement decisions. One person—a dictator/ leader—and his cabal say yes or no, do or don’t. Matters are settled by a decree with lightning speed. Arbitrariness is the backbone of such an arrangement. No need to engage a legislature or the populace at large or worry about the courts and the legality of what is proposed. The minute a despot speaks, the matter is over. The grave danger of this type of governance/government is that, over time, it leads to total oppression, widespread malfeasance and worst of all, the misdirection of our country’s future. Above all, a developmental state such as ours, or any other state for that matter, cannot function without an efficient, effective and ethical bureaucracy; it cannot deliver the necessary goods and services to the general public in time. With government of such a capricious and closed nature, you reap that which you sow. <br /><br /> <br /><br />On the other hand, constitutional democracy and its associated checks and balances are the best form of government because they recognize the flaws in the human character. If we were all saints, government would be unnecessary, as social theorists contend. No, democracy does not work because we are angels and saints. It is necessary because it is the form of government that best restrains the demon in us all. That demon goes by many names—ambition, greed, self-interest, patronage, cronyism, ethnocentrism, corruption, are just a few names. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Just having the democratic forms and institutions are inadequate in themselves. The people with whom these institutions are entrusted must contain the values of democracy in their hearts and minds. A constitution is but a piece of paper and a piece of paper, no matter how special the words inscribed therein, is easily shred. The real constitution that begets good, democratic governance is not found in the piece of paper, it is found in the spirit and thoughts and philosophy that gave rise to what was written. What I am saying is that, for the constitution to be real and genuine it must be written in your mind, your heart, and your behaviour. <br /><br /> <br /><br /> Moreover, seeking the welfare of the masses must be the primary step, the motivating force to any meaningful structure or conduct of government. For good/democratic governance and democracy to take hold, the answers to two questions, “Why do you run for office” and “Why will the people elect you” must be the same. Dissatisfaction and trouble reign wherever and whenever the answers are different. If you run for office because you wanted to enrich yourself but the people elected you because they thought you would bring them better social services, surely, some sections of the population/community will be disappointed. Something has to yield in this situation because you cannot serve two masters—you must either serve them or yourself. Either you will have to change your ways or they will have to accept your self-aggrandizement but both cannot get what they want. Where there is such a fundamental discord between the elected official(s) and the electorate, contention will be your pardon. Conversely, where there is general harmony of interests, you have established the essential foundation for good governance. <br /><br /> <br /><br />You as political leaders of the State can and must be the primary example of good governance to the people. The people may not always be in contact with national officials, but, if you do your work properly, you must be in close contact with your community. By doing your jobs, you not only become the best exemplar of grassroots democracy you become democracy’s protector. <br /><br /> <br /><br />In order to serve this vital function, you must have a vision for your State, your Zone, your Woreda, your village community. If you do not have a vision or a capability as well as sufficient time and energy and vigour for improving or serving your community, you should seriously think about pursuing another vocation. This one may not be for you. Of course, state and local government cannot do everything but you must work with and for the people to bring them the vital services within your mandate to deliver. What the people need from you is not shrouded in mystery. It is easy to discern their needs and concerns provided you care enough about those who elected you. They are looking for improvement in health care for their families, education for their children, better infrastructure, economic growth and employment; safety and security. They want to enjoy their hard-won constitutional rights, freedoms and liberties. <br /><br /> <br /><br />As I said before, you cannot do all of these yourself. But you do have some funds and manpower to address some of their concerns. To the extent you control assets, set your budgets to meet the social service priorities of your community. Move around your State, your Community; take time to express your vision for improving it to your people; let them express their ideas and concerns to you. Listen to their cries, discern their concerns and needs. Some of their ideas will be good, don’t tarry in accepting these ideas. Embrace their good ideas to refine and improve your thinking and your programmes. Accepting someone else’s ideas is not weakness. It is wisdom. If you do follow this tack, your supporters will continue to give you support. Those who once opposed you, will begin to think better about you. Those who hated you, will begin to respect you. Just by listening with an open ear and honest heart, you have taken an important step toward good governance that uplifts the spirit and well-being of the entire community. <br /><br /> <br /><br />In this regard, remember not to shun or harass and persecute your political opposition. Do not mistake electoral politics for military warfare. These people are your fellow nationals and your political opposition not your mortal enemies. Only one person can win an election. But if the election is done fairly and credibly, we all stand to gain something from it. However, if we turn elections into a form of warfare, there is no true winner or loser. We all suffer in the end. Even the so-called winner loses. Given the sharpness of the electoral warfare, even the winner cannot quickly divorce himself from the combative spirit that governed during elections. Once a person gains power by any means, he becomes convinced that his opponent will try to steal that power by any means. This type of victory is no victory at all. This type of psychology is not conducive to good governance and the progress of democracy. In such a situation, a person sleeps with one eye open and one foot on the floor. No matter how high or soft the bed, no one can find comfort in such an arrangement. Thus, it is better to make peace after the elections and the best way to obtain post-election peace is never to engage in pre-election warfare. Better a person erect and live in a modest house in peace than build a large mansion only to destroy half of it. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Remember that your political opponents are human beings with brains and reason. They cannot be wrong on all issues all the time no more than you can be right all the time. Your opponents are entitled to respect and dignity. Listen to them, give them adequate political and economic space as well as proper support, financial and other. Do not starve or humiliate them. Always remember you are not perfect. Even the good decisions you make are not perfect and have their flaws. Often the solutions of today’s problems are the parents of tomorrow’s challenges. No one has a monopoly on truth and knowledge. Accept in good faith the constructive criticism of your political opponents. <br /><br /> <br /><br />The concept of loyal or legal opposition is central to any functioning democracy. It means that all sides in a political debate, however deep their differences, share the fundamental democratic values of freedom of speech and faith, and equal protection under the law. It means, in essence, that all parties in a democracy should be equally committed to the basic values, rules, and procedures of democracy. Parties that lose elections step into the role of opposition—confident that the political system will continue to protect their rights to organize and speak out. In time, their party will have a chance to campaign again for its ideas and programmes, and the votes of the people. Political competitors do not necessarily have to like each other, but they must tolerate each other’s legitimacy. The right of the minority (opposition) does not depend on the goodwill of the majority (ruling party). The losers in an election must not be, or feel, threatened. On the contrary, they must feel comfortable to continue participating in public life. <br /><br /> <br /><br />Finally, the holding of free, fair and credible elections rests on the shoulders of the National Electoral Board or Commission of Ethiopia. Although the support and cooperation of the whole people and government as well as all political parties and the latter’s supporters in the nation’s political arena are required, the responsibility of the Electoral Commission for conducting a peaceful, free and fair election should be duly emphasized. In many newly democratising countries, most complaints that arise during post-elections are attributed to shoddy elections conducted by partisan, ineffective, unprofessional and unscrupulous election officials or commissioners of questionable integrity and their support staff from the top to bottom following their superiors' instructions, often resulting in unnecessary violence and bloodshed. Many election observers and monitors forcefully contend that 50% or more of such election-related bickering, showdowns and other related problems can/will be satisfactorily resolved if the National Election Board or Commission is governed by unquestionable professional ethics, independence, impartiality and the highest code of conduct in its responsibility of effectively and efficiently managing and conducting free, fair and credible elections acceptable to the electorate and all competing parties participating in the periodic elections, and in the security forces (army, police, militia, etc.) remaining aloof and non-partisan. Even mere perceptions that the Board or Commission is not highly independent, professional/ capable or impartial enough to conduct free, fair and credible elections in the country or that the security forces are interfering in favour of the ruling party would send shockwaves across the political marketplace, forcing the competitors in the political arena especially the losers in the elections to challenge or question the credibility of every election results and judge them as unacceptable and to resort to all sorts of violent methods to reverse or change the outcome, besides launching endless accusations and smear campaigns to tarnish the democratic election. Such undesirable outcomes must be avoided as far as possible by rectifying or doing away with all possible weaknesses, shortcomings and deficiencies, real or imagined, that surround the functioning of National Election Board and the security forces of the country before the campaign period begins and crafting comprehensive settlements between all or the principal political elites in the nation’s political marketplace regarding the rules of the game that will be meticulously observed and respected by all parties during voters’ registration and the campaign period as well as before and after the polling day, from voting to observation to vote counting and declaring the election results, etc. As the saying goes, “A stitch in time saves nine.” Last but not least, let us all protagonists and their supporters in the power competition insure that our campaigns will be absolutely peaceful and that no single Ethiopian injures his body or loses his/her life in the upcoming national elections whatever the cause or the outcome. This must be our solemn oath to our people who have suffered so much senseless death and destruction in the recent past in the name of democratic and peaceful elections in their modest attempt to elect their political leaders who are supposed to bring them peace, security, service delivery and prosperity and surely not death and destruction. How long do we seek to make our poor citizens sacrificial lambs for our selfish ends? This brutality must end once and for all. As signatory of numerous international, continental and regional declarations and charters on democracy, human rights and democratic elections, let us rise as a nation to meet or fulfil the expectations of the international community, the African Union and above all our peoples by making the 2010 national elections free, fair and credible, and move beyond that objective to build genuine democracy and good governance in Ethiopia. Now that we, opposition parties and the ruling party, have agreed upon and signed a lasting code of conduct for the upcoming elections and those beyond, let us all endeavour to diligently and meticulously translate this historical document to practice and make all Ethiopians happy and contented of the outcome, now and in the future. For God and our country! Amen.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-88581756315747676282009-10-31T06:25:00.000-07:002009-10-31T06:30:36.623-07:00EDITORIAL ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 22 SEPTEMBER SUMMITBy BAN Ki-Moon<br /><br />885 words<br /><br />Two weeks ago, I visited the Arctic. I saw the remains of a glacier that just a few years ago was a majestic mass of ice. It had collapsed. Not slowly melted -- collapsed. I travelled nine hours by ship from the world’s northernmost settlement to reach the Polar ice rim. In just a few years, the same ship may be able to sail unimpeded all the way to the North Pole. The Arctic could be virtually ice-free by 2030.<br /><br />Scientists told me their sobering findings. The Arctic is our canary in the coal mine for climate impacts that will affect us all. I was alarmed by the rapid pace of change there. Worse still, changes in the Arctic are now accelerating global warming. Thawing permafrost is releasing methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. Melting ice in Greenland threatens to raise sea levels. <br />Meanwhile, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.<br />I am therefore all the more convinced we must act -- now. <br /><br />To that end, on September 22 I convened a special summit on climate change at the United Nations for some 100 world leaders -- history’s largest-ever such gathering of Heads of State and Government. Their collective challenge: transforming the climate crisis into an opportunity for safer, cleaner, sustainable green growth for all. <br /><br />The key is Copenhagen, where governments will gather to negotiate a new global climate agreement in December. I will have a simple message to convey to leaders: The world needs you to actively push for a fair, effective and ambitious deal in Copenhagen. Fail to act, and we will count the cost for generations to come.<br /><br />Climate change is the pre-eminent geopolitical issue of our time. It rewrites the global equation for development, peace and prosperity. It threatens markets, economies and development gains. It can deplete food and water supplies, provoke conflict and migration, destabilize fragile societies and even topple governments.<br /><br />Hyperbole? Not according to the world’s best scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak within ten years if we are to avoid unleashing powerful, natural forces that are now slipping out of our control. <br />Ten years is within the political lifetime of many attending the summit. The climate crisis is occurring on their watch. <br /><br />There is an alternative: sustainable growth based on green technologies and policies that favour low emissions over current carbon-intensive models. Many national stimulus packages devised in the wake of the global economic downturn feature a strong green component that creates jobs and positions countries to excel in the clean energy economy of the 21st century. <br /><br />Change is in the air. The key lies in a global climate deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global temperature rise to a scientifically safe level. A deal to catalyze clean energy growth. Most urgently, an agreement must protect and assist those who are most vulnerable from inevitable climate impacts. <br /><br />What is needed is political will at the highest levels – Presidents, Premiers and Prime Ministers – that translates into rapid progress in the negotiating room. It requires more trust among nations, more imagination, ambition and cooperation. <br /><br />I expect leaders to roll up their sleeves and speak with – not past – each other. I expect them to intensify efforts to resolve the key political issues that have so far slowed global negotiations to a glacial pace. Ironically, that expression -- until recently -- connoted slowness. But the glaciers I saw a few weeks ago in the Arctic are melting faster than human progress to preserve them.<br /><br />We must place the planet’s long-term interests ahead of short-term political expediency. National leaders need to be global leaders who take the long view. Today’s threats transcend borders. So, too, must our thinking. <br /><br />Copenhagen need not resolve all the details. But a successful global climate deal must involve all countries, consistent with their capabilities, working toward a common, long-term goal. Here are my benchmarks for success. <br /><br />First, every country must do its utmost to reduce emissions from all major sources. Industrialized countries have to strengthen their mitigation targets, which are currently nowhere close to what the IPCC says is needed. Developing countries, too, must slow the rise in their emissions and accelerate green growth as part of their strategies to reduce poverty. <br /><br />Second, a successful deal must help the most vulnerable to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change. This is an ethical imperative as well as a smart investment in a more stable, secure world. <br /><br />Third, developing countries need funding and technology so they can move more quickly toward low-emissions growth. A deal must also unlock private investment, including through carbon markets. Fourth, resources must be equitably managed and deployed in a way that all countries have a voice.<br />This year at Copenhagen, we have a powerful opportunity to get on the right side of history. It’s an opportunity not only to avert disaster, but to launch a fundamental transformation of the global economy.<br />Strong new political winds now fill our sails. Millions of citizens are mobilized. Savvy businesses are charting a cleaner energy course. We must seize this moment to act boldly on climate change. It may not come again anytime soon. <br />Change is in the air. Let’s seal the deal on a better future for us all.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-50751914218018444672009-10-31T06:20:00.000-07:002009-10-31T06:23:43.222-07:00Somalia – the new axis of conflictBY EYASU SOLOMON<br />The nature of the intractable civil war in Somalia is undergoing a change, adding an<br />ideological, sectarian dynamic to the confl ict. For the fi rst time in modern Somalia,<br />Sufi groups under attack are taking up arms and effectively fi ghting Al-Shabaab with<br />popular support on the rural plains of central Somalia. This new axis of confl ict,<br />where Islamist fi ghters are battling one another along religious lines, has the potential<br />of changing the confl ict dynamics in the long run.<br />Somalis are generally pragmatic and moderate Sufi Muslims.They do not<br />share the strict, Saudi-inspired Wahhabi interpretation of Islam of the hard-line<br />Al-Shabaab group.1 Historically, loosely organized Sufi groups rarely entered<br />the political arena, with the exception of the anti-colonial wars in the 20th<br />century.2 Over the last two decades of civil war, characterized by a lack of central<br />government, Sufi leaders had managed to steer clear of clan and political wars, but<br />this pragmatic and moderate approach came to an end when Al-Shabaab fi ghters<br />began desecrating their religious shrines in the south of the country late last year.3<br />An impressive example is Al-Shabaab’s policy in the port city of Kismayo. In<br />December 2008, the group targeted Sufi sites, among them ancient graves of clerics<br />and other prominent Sufi s – sites Al-Shabaab deemed un-Islamic. As Sufi scholars<br />increasingly felt discriminated against and targeted because of their religious<br />practices, they saw themselves in a religious zero-sum identity confl ict and decided<br />to take up arms.<br />A clear, but limited challenge<br />Recently, Al-Shabaab fi ghters were able to launch two particularly prominent<br />attacks in their battle against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the<br />African Union (AU) troops in Mogadishu. On 7 May, Al-Shabaab fi ghters attacked<br />the TFG only a few blocks away from Villa Somalia, the presidential palace,<br />thereby showing the apparent weakness of the TFG. On 17 September, Al-Shabaab<br />successfully attacked the main AU military base with two car bombs in the capital,<br />killing 17 peacekeepers.<br />Until very recently, the main Sufi resistance group, Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a<br />(ASWJ), has been militarily active only in the central Somali region of Galgaduud,<br />where the major local clans and sub-clans (Habir Gedir, Dir, and Marehan) as well<br />as Sufi sheikhs have put their support behind ASWJ. While having more armed<br />fi ghters than Al-Shabaab, they are not as well trained, as ASWJ fi ghters are drawn<br />from the clan militias which generally lack formal military training. Nevertheless,<br />the group was able to defeat Al-Shabaab in two strategically crucial towns<br />connecting southern and northern Somalia. From 1 November until 16 December<br />2008, ASWJ successfully engaged in fi erce fi ghting with Al-Shabaab in the town<br />of Guraceel. On 25 January, ASWJ openly engaged Al-Shabaab militias in intense<br />fi ghting, reportedly killing at least 35 people and injuring more than 60 others in<br />Dhusamareeb. Subsequently, ASWJ succeeded in driving Al-Shabaab insurgents<br />out of several towns of the region. In their place, the Sufi movement has established<br />its own incipient local administration, liaising with UN offi cials and patrolling the<br />locality. Grassroots support and local clan-backing has allowed this new movement<br />to transform rapidly from a civil to a military force.4 In addition, ASWJ has openly<br />come out supporting the new president of the TFG, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.5 More<br />recently, ASWJ is reported to be active also outside the Galgaduud region, and have<br />taken over two towns in the Gedo region in accordance with the TFG.6<br />It is, however, important to acknowledge that ASWJ is still a small part in<br />the equation of the fi ght between the TFG and Al-Shabaab. While the religious<br />opposition to Al-Shabaab and its radical interpretation of Islam is wide and deep in<br />Somalia, it has not been able to organize itself politically or military on a broader<br />level. Furthermore, ASWJ itself lacks a political vision and, thus, fi nds it diffi cult to<br />sustain its rule in the areas it controls.<br />Al-Shabaab - strengths and weaknesses<br />It appears that the accomplishments of ASWJ imply two realities. First, the severe<br />Wahhabi governing methods of Al-Shabaab, which echo those on view in Pakistan’s<br />Swat Valley and includes stoning and amputations, elicit little local support. In fact,<br />the same could be observed of all radical Islamic groups in Somalia since the 1990s.<br />Al-Shabaab gained their performance legitimacy in setting up Islamic courts and<br />bringing law and order to the areas under their control, giving them strong support<br />in parts of the country. However, popular resistance to the insurgency today is<br />reported more frequently and conducted more openly. For example, on 26 March,<br />hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets in protest against a ban on the sale of<br />the narcotic Khat. In reaction, Al-Shabaab further intensifi ed its strategy of coercion<br />and intimidation of the Somali population by carefully selected assassinations and<br />arrests of clan elders, several of whom have been murdered. In the latest high profi le<br />assassination, Omar Hashi Aden, the Minister of National Security, was killed along<br />with 30 other people in a large-scale suicide car bomb in Beletwyne on 19 June,<br />leading to a strong condemnation by a broad cross-section of Somali society.7<br />Second, the wide territorial dominance of the jihadists is perhaps more a function<br />of the lack of any countervailing force than an indicator of any innate strength. In<br />this sense, Al-Shabaab is benefi ting particularly from the weakness of the other<br />groups, fi rst and foremost the TFG. As Roland Marchal put it, “Al-Shabaab may<br />not be so powerful militarily speaking, but it is the smartest to keep the warfare in<br />conditions that are suitable for its low membership and its lack of popular support”.8<br />In fact, the movement should be weakened considerably since two of its main<br />political pillars have been removed by the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and<br />the introduction of Sharia law by the new government. Facing a foreign enemy,<br />segmentary lineage societies close their ranks and overcome their internal splits and<br />rivalries to fi ght a common enemy. No doubt, this coherence falls apart as soon as<br />the common enemy disappears. In part, this dynamic is causing popular support to<br />wane for Al-Shabaab.9<br />Nevertheless, Al-Shabaab is still able to recruit and attract considerable backing<br />in certain areas for various motives. Besides ideological reasons, religious or<br />nationalistic, the movement is also attractive for economic survival as Al-Shabaab<br />has the means to pay their mainly young fi ghters. In addition, the movement<br />represents a means of empowerment and certainly provides the ground for sheer<br />power-seeking people to further their political stance.10<br />At the same time Al-Shabaab is increasingly becoming aware that they are<br />increasingly alienating the population in areas they administered according to an<br />overtly strict reading of Sharia law. Contrary to the perception of Al-Shabaab as<br />a mere ideology driven movement, it did prove its ability to change its political<br />strategy in a pragmatic way in order to regain ground: Trying to consolidate its rule,<br />Al-Shabaab quite successfully adopted a new approach in the city of Baidoa by<br />building its economic, social and educational infrastructure and holding talks with<br />traditional clan leaders.<br />Conclusion<br />The TFG is attempting to take matters into their own hands. On 21 June it signed an<br />agreement with Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a in which it agreed to cooperate in political,<br />security, humanitarian and development areas. At the same time, the TFG appointed<br />a former offi cial of the Hizbul Islam insurgent group, which fought alongside Al-<br />Shabaab, Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad Inda’ade, as state defence minister.11 But this<br />does not constitute a break through in their battle over power with Al-Shabaab.<br />A closer look at the fi ghting between Al-Shabaab and Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a<br />shows how fl uid clan loyalties can be in Somalia. For now however, none of these<br />attempts and changes in the dynamics of Somalia’s civil war have been able to<br />fundamentally change the current stalemate between the TFG and the insurgent<br />groups, prolonging the ongoing war.<br />Georg-Sebastian Holzer<br />is a Research Assistant at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced<br />International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, DC. He focuses on confl ict management<br />with a regional specialization on the Horn of Africa.<br />Notes<br />1. For a short overview about the Al-Shabaab movement see: Paula Christina Roque,<br />‘Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab’, ISS Situation Report, Institute for Security<br />Studies, 3 June 2009.<br />2. Roland Marchal, ‘Islamic Political Dynamics in the Somali Civil War’, in Alex de<br />Waal (ed.) Islamism and Its Enemies in the Horn of Africa, Indiana University Press<br />2004, pp. 114-145.<br />3. Mohamed Mohamed, ‘Somali rage at grave desecration’, BBC 8 June 2009 http://<br />news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8077725.stm<br />4. ‘Ahlu Sunna Takes Control of Provincial Town’, Shabelle Media Network,<br />29 January 2009; UN Security Council, ’Report of the Secretary-General on the<br />situation in Somalia’, 9 March 2009.<br />5. ‘Islamist Group Supports President Sharif’, Shabelle Media Network, 13<br />February 2009.<br />6. ‘Islamist Forces Join Government Troops in Bakol Regio’, Shabelle Media<br />Network, 27 March 2009; ‘Ahlu Sunnah Take Trade Town Along Kenya Border’,<br />Garowe Online, 17 August 2009; ‘Ahlu Sunnah Capture Second Town in Gedo<br />Region’, Garowe Online, 19 August 2009.<br />7. UN Security Council,’Report of the Secretary-General on the situation in<br />Somalia’, 20 July 2009.<br />8. Email correspondence by the author with Roland Marchal, 30 July 2009.<br />9. Stephanie McCrummen, ‘In a changing Somalia, Islamist forces see support<br />wane’, Washington Post, 7 August 2009.<br />10. Ken Menkhaus, ‘Violent Islamic Extremism: Al-Shabaab Recruitment in<br />America’, Hearing before the Committee on Homeland Security, US Senate, 11<br />March 2009.<br />11. Recent events show that the pragmatic alliance between Al-Shabaab and Hizbul<br />Islam is dissolving. See, e.g. ‘Somalia’s al Shabaab rebels declare war on rivals’,<br />Reuters, 30 September 2009.EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-26419170686508009542009-06-25T04:57:00.000-07:002009-06-25T04:58:53.887-07:00Leader comes and goes but why?Leader comes and goes but why? <br /> <br /><br />Zeru Hagos 06/24/09<br /><br />Why are leaders replaced? Take for example PM Meles. Yes PM Meles has been the top leader for his organization for a while now. But, during his time EPRDF has been transformed from a well oiled fighting machine to a formidable organization that won three successive elections. Under EPRDF Ethiopia has become truly a developing country and an aspiring democratic country! Yet, more is to come and more than ever a strong progressive and articulate leadership is needed. Who ever holds a majority seat in parliament in the coming election the next government will have a daunting task to navigate the country from becoming victim of the economic turmoil the world is in today to a proactive one. And if EPRDF becomes the majority seat holder who is there to lead than PM Meles and his team who have showed resilience and true statesmanship to garner world praise! So why change?<br /><br /> The next government will have a daunting task to manage the turmoil that is engulfing the Horn region from Eritrea to Somalia. The Sudanese referendum that will surely split the country in to north south will certainly require an adept government in Ethiopia to manage the dicey situation there. And the biggest challenge of all, for the coming government will be to earn respect from all EPRDF member organizations in order to pass legislation. It is clear that the parliament is becoming more vibrant and may not tip toe to party disciplines when issues come to the floor. Take the current uproar with the Amhara delegation about the population census! The Census bureau has to visit its counting procedures to find any weakness simply because Amhara MPs who are EPRDF members did not like the result.<br /><br />If EPRDF chooses a new leader out of the non veteran EPRDF circle, who ever he/she may be will have a daunting task to convince the old guards in each front for their support. I see an erosion of camaraderie if the new leader is a former Derge functionary! For such person to take power at the top while long time EPRDF members who gave it their all are side tracked, is simply an additional burden EPRDF can do without. Thus, why would EPRDF want to change leadership at the top today? And why is Ethiopia’s constitution under pressure from Westerners who want to see leadership change to mirror their way of government?<br /><br /> If leadership change is a must no matter what the situation is then why did EPRDF fail to adopt such language in its internal rule and the country’s constitution for this long? Who really benefits a leadership change today? Not tomorrow but today? Tomorrow I agree there must be for no one is immortal!<br /><br />Would EPRDFites be happy to see Meles and his government replaced? Would anyone be pleased to see Meles alone go and everybody else remain as is…if so what has Meles done for such treatment? Would a new prime minster solve any issue if he is to continue PM Meles government policy as is? If not which policy do we expect the new prime minister to change? Why can’t Meles continue if no policy change is needed? These are questions I have but I am sure there are more.<br /><br />I personally think PM Meles, unless his medical condition is forcing him to take it easy, like a good soldier that never says I am tired, must continue for another term or at the very least serve a transitional two to three year time so the new leader is not overwhelmed before he /she gets in to the office. That way Ethiopia’s enemy from far and near will know for the next few years things will remain the same. The huge economic infrastructure development and the Sudanese referendum will be over by then and hopefully there will also be a closure with the Somalia and Eritrean issue.<br /><br /> Some say Ethiopia is ready for an Afar, Oromo, Somali and e.t.c prime minister! Ethiopia has been ready for any competent and pragmatist and farsighted leader since God knows when! There was no tomorrow set aside for an Oromo prime minister by the Ethiopian people. Only a dysfunctional opposition and a confused, “aderby” supporters of EPRDF will advocate for such today! The notion that a prime minister who is an Oromo or a Wolayita or Sidama or an Amhara will solve the perception of TPLF dominance is a false one! The perception is simply created by the opposition to break down the EPRDF! Otherwise an opposition that never recognizes OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM as an organization cannot be interested to see a prime minister out of them! EPRDF should choose its next leaders regardless of race creed and religion!<br /><br /> If a new prime minister or an EPRDF leader is to emerge it should be done based on merits and after a genuine discussion. The discussion should be on what is good for EPRDF and the country not what is good for foreign agents! The merits should be valued against tenacity during trying moments, farsightedness and awareness of geo politics! Above all the new leader should be one who has earned great respect among rank and file members of the EPRDF. For the road ahead is still bumpy and when push comes to shove these rank and file members will come handy! No one certainly wants Kinjit type experience when tough times come! Kinjit leaders and supporters run tail behind to Washington DC leaving behind the country and innocent followers cold dry! Can you imagine a weak and unpopular leader leading the country during events like election 2005 aftermath!<br /><br /> Our Ethiopia needs a stable and progressive government, we should tell Westerners we really are ahead of schedule to become like them considering it took them 200 years to be where they are! After all it took them 200 years to be where they are and still their democratic aspiration is still in progress like ours is!<br /><br /> So why would EPRDF replace Meles today? Do they [EPRDF] not see the situation Ethiopia is in today?EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-52658691735489018002009-06-24T00:42:00.000-07:002009-06-24T00:43:34.409-07:00Meles for Mo Ibrahim Prize: The Prize for Achievement in African Leadership1Meles for Mo Ibrahim Prize: The Prize for Achievement in African Leadership1<br /><br />(First appeared in December 2006 and updated June 23,2009)<br /><br />By: Mulu GS<br /><br /><br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Mr. Zena Marcos, I argue that PM Meles Zenawi is not a liability to EPRDF. From my perspective, he is rather the best asset. However, now that he has repeatedly hinted to relieve himself from the daunting job of premiership it is important that we rationally support him to bid for Mo Ibrahim Prize. It could be an impetus for positive thinking and for reassessing his future role in the political development of Ethiopia. The main aim of this article is not to debate with Zena, it is rather to open an intellectual debate on this issue of stepping down from a government position. For starters though, I argue that he qualifies for the prize. I will forward my points for why I believe he deserves it, but first the major points in the prize: <br /><br />i. It gives a total of $5m prize for Africa's most effective head of state- award winning leaders $5m (£2.7m) over 10 years when they leave office, plus $200,000 (£107,000) a year for life. <br /><br />ii. The main objective is to remove corruption and improve governance. <br /><br />iii. It involves one of the best universities in the world -Harvard University will assess how well the president has served his or her people while in office. <br /><br />iv. It is supported by the world’s best people ever- Nelson Mandela, former US President Bill Clinton and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. <br /><br />Now back to my arguments. The gist of my argument is that Meles deserves to work towards getting the Mo Leadership Prize by the end of his term given he transfers power peacefully. As we all do, whenever there is a prize announcement in academic competition or any other competition we try our best to win. We write our applications and essentially nominate our selves and present our work to achieve it. It is not any different here. If the bylaws of the Prize are to nominate oneself by writing an application statement then he should do it. If it is by third party nomination, then we should support his nomination. <br /><br />Why does Meles deserve this prize? I will give a few highlights that I think are sufficient to demonstrate why he deserves this prize. First and foremost, he is one of the very few leaders in the world who has successfully transformed himself from a second year medical student to a fighter, commander/leader, head of state, economist and intellectual, and from a communist to an architect of developmental state. He has passed through challenges-jungle life, within party fights (the 1984 and the 2000) and the recent election fights with people who have grave hate towards him and his people. Shortly, he is tested!<br /><br />On the other hand he is a very disciplined man. He values family- sticking to his “amin” first wife and is a family man. He has been seen accompanying his daughter to a high school graduation despite the hectic nature of being head of government. He has made conversations and letter exchanges with school children at several levels. These are characters that everyone envies. After all, we all know how much key role this type of character plays in the USA elections.<br /><br />He also has other qualities. As far as my knowledge is concerned he is the only leader in the history of Ethiopia who fluently speaks English, Amharic, and Tigrigna. He probably is the only leader who has achieved the highest ladders of education while in office. If the recent news is true he might get a PhD very soon. That would probably make him the first leader to achieve a PhD while in office. He has demonstrated to friends and foe how brilliant he is in articulating the issues that are fundamental for economic development o African countries. His nomination to the Blair African Commission, His recent role in the China-Africa partnership, his recent invited speech in the EU development conference, the prizes and honorary doctorates he has been getting, the recent invited speech at the G20 summit and the invitation to the forthcoming G8 meeting clearly show the high regard he is winning from the international community. He has had a key role in influencing the World Bank and IMF aid policy for the Third World countries. His recent manuscript on the developmental state is, simply put, a great addition to the debate on the possible strategic solutions to the problems of developing countries (especially Africa). What makes it more interesting is that his background is from the poor like one of us.<br /><br />I am not ignoring the fact that there are those who would like us to believe that he is a monster. There are those who accuse him for every single bad that has happened during his reign. Some called him Grazianni, some Hitler, some worse than Mengistu. And there are some moderate critics who do not like his style of communicating his goodwill to the Ethiopian people and who think he is arrogant. However, history tells us that nobody even Jesus Christ, would pass from this kind of labeling and bashing. I am not saying that he did not make mistakes, probably a lot, but that is part of what being human is. I wonder how many people would volunteer to be leaders of this very poor country and be able to surpass the infinite expectation of Ethiopians of all walks of life. <br /><br />Some of the shortcomings that I share with my fellow Ethiopians have to do with EPRDF’s handling of the Eritrean issue (I am not against the principle of self determination enshrined in the constitution). My problems are mainly with the fact that why Meles and other leaders of EPRDF were not forthcoming in explaining the rationale for their handling of Eritreans and the Eritrean issue. The monstrosity of the Eritrean regime towards Ethiopians and especially Tigrayans starts from the road blocking of relief food by Shabia during the 84 famine which for any sane person is unforgettable and intolerable. In fact, I do not forget how Meles in his own words described this horrendous event in one of the Yekatit 11 anniversary speeches. Add to this all that happened to Ethiopians who lived in Eritrea which is opposite to what the Eritrean on the Ethiopian side have been enjoying. I am still waiting to hear any justification for this. Frankly, he does not take all the responsibility but as a leader he gets a fair share of the blame. <br /><br />The debate on whether Meles should stay beyond his current term or not has been in both directions. There are those who nicely argued that having Meles Zenawi stay for one or more terms can be advantageous. For instance, Getachew Mequannent3 gives three reasons, which all make sense (1) he has increasingly become self-conscious of his reputation and this means that he will be pushing ahead with policy reforms and the democratization process, (2) he has spent years learning and accumulating political and diplomatic experiences, which are assets and (3) he has a natural ability for sharp articulation of development issues and this will promote a good image of Ethiopia. Getachew argues that in many cases what matters in politics is not a change of leadership, but a commitment to working towards reducing poverty which Meles has been doing. There are also others who have beautifully argued otherwise. For instance, Mekonnen Kassa4 argues that by peacefully transferring power Meles can leave behind a great Ethiopian legacy for the first time in thousands of years of our existence. Similarly, Belihu Aychilim argued that, “even for those who support most ideas behind the present government, the devolving of power from Meles to another fresh blood is a matter of credibility and renewal of commitment to the EPRDF. It is important to be assured that EPRDF could handle change and continuity without having to narrowly rely on a single individual and clique. Meles should take the road less traveled - which is always the difficult path.” <br /><br />I do like both sides of the debate and frankly I am torn in between. However, if he has enough of public service, the key to be eligible to the Mo Prize is going to be the peaceful transfer of power to his successor. And I pray to God to help him in this respect.<br /><br /> <br /><br />1 http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/mif_prize.html<br /><br />2 http://www.aigaforum.com/Commentary_on_should_PM_Meles.htm<br /><br />3 http://www.aigaforum.com/Reflection_on_Meles_Zenawi_s_Possible_Retirement.htm<br /><br />4 http://www.aigaforum.com/Meles_comment.pdfEYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1865803754200463671.post-62660985459401794802009-06-15T02:58:00.002-07:002009-06-15T03:07:24.620-07:00Ethiopia plans new rail system<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_EwLtB47xtdM/SjYdRxOoQ9I/AAAAAAAAAbM/TVbuTRLhK74/s1600-h/Train-Ethiopia-s.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 190px; height: 113px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_EwLtB47xtdM/SjYdRxOoQ9I/AAAAAAAAAbM/TVbuTRLhK74/s320/Train-Ethiopia-s.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5347493798658720722" /></a>EYASU SOLOMONhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03361533845934000022noreply@blogger.com0